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Indiana Pacers
Win Total 47.1 (47.5's in the market with a few sparse 46.5's) | Moore's Projection: 46.0
Bet/Lean/Pass: Lean Under, No Bet
Handicap
On the surface, this is a great chance to play back against a team that overperformed in the postseason. The numbers are going to indicate that Indy is due for a little regression even with internal development, and they didn't add anyone of consequence in the offseason.
That was my initial position after reviewing their season and offseason. But of course, the pesky "vibes" monster has attacked. There's a real sense from the various members of the team that instead of resting on their laurels and being overconfident after the Eastern Conference Finals run that instead they "haven't done (anything)."
This seems like just talk, but it's two things: leadership and mindset.
The Pacers are not a team like the 2021 Hawks that got fooled into thinking they're really good. They're a team that got to see how hard the competition is at the highest levels and what that means for them.
Tyrese Haliburton "played" for Team USA (i.e. hung out and got a gold medal) and in doing so saw how hard the best players in the league work. That tends to motivate and change how stars prepare.
But some of the roster change is worrisome.
Jalen Smith is not a household name, he's not even a known name for 40th percentile League Pass junkies, but he was important. Smith was 93rd percentile in offensive EPM last season. Some of that is just by virtue of being on the Pacers. But Smith genuinely was good last season and they'll miss him.
They also replaced him by adding James Wiseman. Wiseman is not expected to play, which is good. I cannot stress how negative Wiseman's minutes have been in the league. From the Warriors to Detroit, his minutes are not just bad, they actively make good lineups awful. He's young, he can improve, but it's worrisome to have him anywhere near a team with this kind of margin for error.
Still, there is a public under-appreciation of just how good this Pacers offense is. There's a reason that Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said they were their hardest matchup in the playoffs despite the sweep. Indiana's offense is relentless in their pace like the Seven Seconds Or Less Suns, and otherworldly efficient. They finished second in offensive rating behind Boston's "the ceiling is the floor" consistency, but if we're talking pure ceiling, just "who can put up 150 tonight?" it's absolutely the Pacers.
A full preseason with Siakam on the team will help with integrating various parts. Bennedict Mathurin returns from injury for what could be a terrific sixth man role. Andrew Nembhard may level up after making a playoff leap (or crash back to Earth like Caleb Martin). Myles Turner remains a terrific stretch five who should contribute more defensively as the pieces around him get on the same page.
Bottom 10 defenses average a 19.4 defensive rank in the subsequent season since 2011. Bottom-5 defenses average a 19.7 rank. So there are some signs that elite defense isn't very sticky, and it seems like God-awful defense is the same. That's promising for the Pacers.
If they manage to pull the defense out of the hazmat zone into just "not very good" then this team is likely to have a 45-win floor with reasonable Haliburton health.
The tail end outcomes for the Pacers are pretty extreme. If the offense doesn't click like last year and looks mortal while the defense remains sour, they're going to fall back into the play-in and be fighting for their playoff lives. If the defense makes any sort of jump while the offense remains elite with one of the best offensive engines in the league in Haliburton at the helm, then they can easily win 50-plus and be a top-four seed.
I like this Pacers team. I want good things for this Pacers team. But the supporting structure and offseason moves are just enough to keep me away from buying in on them, at least for now.
Trends
- Top-ten offenses who went over the previous season are 35-30 to the under (54%)
- Teams with a top-ten offense, bottom-10 defense are 12-9 to the under the following season, but teams who went over the prior season are 6-4 to the over.
- Teams with a bottom-10 defense who made the playoffs are 12-6 (67%) to the under the following season.
How They Go Over
The offense remains a buzzsaw, Haliburton stays healthy for the majority of the season, and the defense regresses to merely "bad-not-terrible." They take advantage of a relatively weak schedule and top out at 50 wins.
How They Go Under
The defense remains incapable of getting stops and without any offseason change, the formula becomes stale by midseason. They begin to spin their wheels with a great offense but give up just as much as they score and the team settles back to near-.500.
Sneaky Guy I Like
Be on the lookout for Jarace Walker if there are injuries. He flashed a lot of talent when given the chance and had a great summer league. Walker can reshape some of their lineups.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
