The start of the NBA season is just one week away, and we’ve got you covered with how to bet every single team in the NBA to get started. Here’s a guide to every NBA win total, with this entry on the…
Milwaukee Bucks
Win Total 50.9 (low 50.5, high 51.5) | Moore's Projection: 49.1
Bet/Lean/Pass: Under 51.5 2-Unit Play
Handicap
The Bucks look like an easy target for a bounceback season. Milwaukee had the year from hell last year with the failed tenure of Adrian Griffin, trying to replace him at midseason with Doc Rivers, and a myriad of injuries including season-ending injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo that took away any chance of a playoff run.
They upgraded the roster with Taurean Prince, Delon Wright and Gary Trent Jr., adding a big wing, a defensive guard (to replace "perimeter defender" Malik Beasley who was woefully miscast) and a pure shooter in Trent.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was outrageously good last year.
30 points per game.
11.5 rebounds.
6.5 assists.
1.2 steals, 1.1 blocks per game.
74% shooting at the rim.
95th percentile rebound rate.
96th percentile assist percentage.
A +8.0 net rating with Giannis on-court after Rivers took over.
He was just a juggernaut. Giannis is still in his prime and despite the injury issue last year there's no reason to think he's slowing down in availability or production.
He remains the most physically dominant player in the league. He might be good for 50 on his own.
So what's the problem?
There are two problems: the defense and the win profile.
Milwaukee fell off a cliff defensively after a half-decade of consistent top-10 rankings (outside of 2022 following the '21 title when they finished 14th and Brook Lopez played only 13 games). They were 19th in schedule-adjusted defensive rating for the season. Even after Rivers took over, the Bucks still finished 15th defensively.
The easy answer seems to be Damian Lillard. Replacing Jrue Holiday with Lillard is a huge downgrade defensively, so that can explain things and we can just blame Dame, right?
Except that the defense was five points better overall for the season with Lillard on the floor, six points better after Rivers took over. The Bucks compensated for Lillard defensively just fine.
The problem areas were on the bench with units that had Patrick Beverley, Jae Crowder, or Bobby Portis really vulnerable. But there were also some worrisome signs with Khris Middleton and the other starters in the non-Lillard minutes.
Maybe the depth the Bucks added with Delon Wright, Taurean Prince, and Gary Trent Jr. changes the makeup and reinforces their defensive floor. But with Middleton 33 and Brook Lopez 36, the supporting structure has diminished returns.
The offense might be good enough to compensate if they can optimize it, but the Bucks profile since 2019 when Mike Budenholzer took over was elite defense and a Giannis-led offense. This is a mediocre defense with a Lillard-Giannis offense. It's just different, which means our expectations should be different.
The Bucks were also one of the most consistent teams in win profiles under Budenholzer. They beat division teams (who you play most often), teams under .500, and dominated their home games. Last season's Bucks team lost 10 games to teams under.500, the second-most of any East playoff team. You have to take care of business. Milwaukee was only 10-7 vs. division teams. (They were 31-11 at home, the second-best East record behind Boston.)
Maybe this is a simple reflection of how good Milwaukee is and with a better roster and more time under Rivers, they bounce back. But last year showcased a team that failed in a lot of the markers that define win total over teams.
Let's talk about Doc Rivers for a minute. Rivers is better than the perception has become of him. He did win an NBA title after all, and his teams have consistently made the playoffs. He does set a pretty high floor for his teams in the regular season. (Playoffs have become an altogether different matter with the number of 3-1 leads he's blown.)
Overall in full seasons, Rivers' teams are 10-8 t the under since 2005, but when you narrow it down to teams with a win total of 50 or more, he's 7-5 to the over.
What does that say? Probably that Rivers for the most part doesn't get in the way of good teams, and this is a good team.
Rivers isn't a reason to fade a team, but he's also not a reason to gear up and be behind them, either.
The offense has a lot of upside, though. Here's a quirky stat: Damian Lillard shot 37% — from the field, not from 3 — off Giannis Antetokounmpo passes, 30% from the outside. Giannis –who again shot 64.5% from 2-point range and 75% at the rim for the season — only shot 54% off Lillard passes.
Lillard and Antetokounmpo were still elite, as you would expect, in terms of on-court offense, with a 121 offensive rating. The Bucks' starters were 80th percentile in halfcourt offense and 83rd when Pat Connaughton played for Malik Beasley. But there's a runway for this to be better.
However, that runway is offset by the age. This will be one of the oldest rosters in the league on opening night even with some of the adjustments and younger additions.
Lopez: 36
Dame: 34
Middleton: 33 (already dealing with injuries going into camp)
Giannis: 30
Delon Wright: 32
Pat Connaughton: 31
Taurean Prince: 30
The average age of the Bucks will likely be — after camp cuts — over 27 years old. That's 75th percentile for teams across the last 13 seasons. Teams with a 75th percentile age or higher over that span have gone under 55% of time.
Teams with an average age of 27 or greater with a win total of 50 or higher have gone under at a rate of 32-17 (65.3%).
It's hard to keep older teams healthy, hungry, and engaged.
I'm confident that the Bucks will be better this season, qualitatively. But I'm willing to bet they won't be better quantitatively. They've reached that stage where they are simply managing the regular season and trying to get their older starters healthy to the finish line.
That's a team ripe for an under.
TRENDS
Since 2011, not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season:
- Teams with a win total over 49.5 go under 62% of the time
- Teams with a win total of 49.5+ back to back years are 21-13 to the under
- Among teams with a win total of 49.5 in back to back seasons who went under with a defense outside the top 10 are 7-0 to the under
How It Goes Over
Dame and Giannis get on the same page. The defense bounces back with a better scheme and the additions of younger talent winds the margin that their stars provide.
How It Goes Under
Lineup inconsistency leads to a repeat of last year, and Doc's higher floor, lower ceiling coaching fails to significantly push them beyond the basics.
Sneaky Guy I Like
AJ Green shot 41 percent from 3 last season and his shooting really helped open the floor. He won't get many opportunities but he's got great floor sense and makes them better in his minutes.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
