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Toronto Raptors
Win Total 30.5 | Moore's Projection: 28.5
Bet/Lean/Pass: Pass, for now.
Handicap
You've got to think of the Raptors like an experimental aircraft. They've got an engine, wings, flaps, and wheels. We just don't know if they're going to take off or not.
You can find a lot of reasons for optimism on Toronto, more reasons for optimism than pessimism.
With Scottie Barnes in the lineup, the Raptors went 22-38, a 30-win pace, with a -3.4 point differential. That's not good, but given where the roster was at, it's not awful. Meanwhile, when Barnes was injured, Toronto went 3-19, losing by 14.8 points per game. That, if you were not aware, is bad.
The key is when they have the combination of the new "core" of Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and center Jakob Poeltl. That combination had a +10.3 net rating. They only went 7-7 in those games, but that's still a full ten wins over the win total here.
Barnes is the biggest leverage point offensively. His jump last season to 20-8-6 on decent-if-not-great efficiency was a sign of how he can operate as the team's primary engine. He struggled mightily in the first half of the year before an intervention from head of basketball operations Masai Ujiri readjusted the youngster's approach.
Barnes as an engine is a tough cover, he's huge (6-7) with great passing skills and his athleticism gets him to spots on the floor to force help so he can make reads. He's not an elite individual scorer due to the efficiency gap and that means teams can live with his scoring exploits while trying to contain his passing.
Toronto's absence of shooters compounds this; the Raptors had no shooters above 40% from 3 last season in the main rotation. (Immanuel Quickley came closest at 39.5%.) If the Raptors hit more shots off Barnes' creation, it'll make it easier for him to score. If he's able to score more efficiently individually, it'll open up better opportunities for the Raptors.
Toronto generated the right shots; they had the 10th-best expected eFG% based on shooting location. They just didn't have the personnel. They also… didn't add any over the summer. They can hope for improvement from second-year wing Grady Dick but their best shooter Gary Trent Jr. left for the Bucks in free agency.
The Raptors' defense fell off a cliff last season and that's concerning because it's such a change from their identity over the past decade. Even with the trades of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, the drop to 26th in schedule-adjusted defensive rating poses some real concerns under coach Darko Rajaković.
However, there are signals that they were better in process. They had the 10th-best expected opponent field goal percentage but the 9th-worst actual mark; teams shot better than expected against them. That said, they were bottom-10 in both opponent points off turnovers and second-chance points per 100 possessions; they gave up too many points on the margins. That's something you can clean up, but it complicates the idea the defense will improve.
So the expectations have to be measured on both offense and defense, but that's what you would anticipate with a 30.5 win total. The question is whether they overperform or underperform last year's bar.
One player you should have a lot of optimism for is RJ Barrett. After being dealt to Toronto, Barrett averaged 22 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game, shooting 61% from 2 and 39% from 3.
Barrett wasn't just putting up numbers with Barnes out, either. His efficiency and scoring output was higher when Barnes played. There's room for him to be the secondary scorer. Think of the model a little bit like Khris Middleton next to Barnes' mini-Giannis.
Barrett is +2500 at Bet365 right now for Most Improved Player and that's pretty good value… if you think the Raptors go over and make the playoffs.
The upward paths here are great, though. If someone, anyone, can knock down a 3-pointer. If Barnes stays healthy. If some actual continuity helps them. They need a few young guys to pop but there are a lot of options. Also, they have contracts to move like Bruce Brown that could bring in an impact player.
The question is whether the allure of the draft will be too much and if Toronto pivots to draft positioning. If they're on pace for 35 wins, an over, do they shift the other direction instead of pursuing a play-in spot?
I want to check this team in preseason. If they look like they're dialed in and there's been some pop from the young players, I lean to the over. If they still look like a team trying to figure out what they want to do, I'll stay away.
TRENDS
- Teams who missed the playoffs and were 25th percentile or worse in both 3-point losses (seven or more) and 3-point win percentage (40% or worse) are 22-13 to the UNDER the following season (63%).
How It Goes Over
Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett provide a good enough offensive structure and a few quality shooting seasons boosts the offense to middle of the pack. Veteran awareness and athleticism gets the defense to top twenty.
How It Goes Under
Barnes still isn'r ready to be the guy, Rajaković proves to be unready for the gig and the defense can't uphold a low offensive floor.
Random Guy That I Like
Rookie 2nd rounder Jamal Shead showed some real pop in summer league. Toronto has Davion Mitchell and Ja'Kobe Walter (19th overall) in front of Shead on the depth chart but both are more shooting guards than point.
Data provided by NBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
