Pacers vs. Knicks Prediction
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -4.5 | 219 -110 / -110 | +164 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-108 -112 | 219 -110 / -110 | -196 |
Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Knicks on Wednesday, May 8 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.
The New York Knicks won a tightly contested and slightly controversial Game 1 against the Indiana Pacers.
Now with the Knicks up 1-0 in the series, can the Pacers even things up, or will the Knicks defend home court and leave up 2-0?
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers had chances to win Game 1, but they came up just short due to a variety of different reasons.
The Pacers did a few things very well in Game 1. They didn't turn the ball over, yet forced the Knicks to make mistakes. Additionally, the bench absolutely smashed, with TJ McConnell, Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard and Isaiah Jackson putting together great minutes. They dominated the bench minutes and were able to take a lead before the half because of that.
Looking at the actions that the Pacers ran, it's clear that Tyrese Haliburton needs to be more aggressive as a scoring threat. The Knicks are refusing to surrender the switch to him, and they won't blitz him either.
Haliburton is not looking to score — he was 2-of-6 from the field, with five of those shots coming from 3-point range. While he's still able to facilitate, his lack of gravity at this juncture is limiting his efficacy. He had just eight assists on 15 potentials, which is a far cry from the 10.9 assists and 17.8 potentials he averaged during the regular season.
While he's still able to create for his teammates, if he's unwilling (or unable) to take advantage of single coverage off the bounce, it makes the Knicks' lives much easier on the defensive side of the ball.
Indiana did find a lot of success immediately off of the Knicks' makes. The Knicks would slog a bit when getting back and Indiana would torch them with full-court passes. Those are things that are extremely evident through film and are harder to replicate after one game, though.
New York Knicks
The Knicks received the bad news that Mitchell Robinson will miss extended time with a stress fracture, and they'll once again be back to a center rotation of Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa.
While it would be damning for other teams to lose a defender of Robinson's caliber, I don't think this is a colossal loss for the Knicks in this particular matchup. Achiuwa has the engine to keep up with Jackson and the speed and strength to align himself against Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner.
On the offensive side of the ball, I think he may be a boost compared to Robinson. Obviously, the Knicks will miss Robinson's offensive rebounding; however, having Precious slightly space the floor may be preferable to Robinson standing in the dunker spot.
The story of Game 1 for the Knicks is that they turned the ball over far too many times. 15 giveaways is untenable, and that sloppy play narrowed the possession advantage the Knicks generally are able to have. Those are mental mistakes and ones the Knicks likely will lock in and reduce moving forward.
Jalen Brunson was once again incredible. He scored 43 points while going 14-of-14 from the free-throw line. The interesting thing about his scoring was it all came on shots the Knicks would want — the Pacers don't double and they only put two on-ball in the last minute of the game to prevent Brunson from receiving passes.
However, this wasn't enough to stop him. While Andrew Nembhard was lined up across from Brunson on most possessions, the Pacers don't have a great pivot to that. Although Aaron Nesmith would make the most sense, Brunson was actively putting Nesmith into the action in Game 1 — Indiana doesn't have a one-man solution to Brunson at this juncture.
Similar to the Knicks' refusal to blitz Haliburton, the Pacers employed a similar strategy with Brunson and didn't send multiple players to the ball. The Knicks actively tried to attack Haliburton with Brunson and they didn't want to give up that switch.
As a result, it skewed the Pacers' defense by putting Brunson's man out of position (usually on his hip) and this then opened up Brunson's dribble penetration.
Once he was into the teeth of the Indiana defense, he could slice and dice them.
Pacers vs. Knicks
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Game 1 was close and the Knicks ultimately were able to pull away with a victory, the biggest issue for the Pacers was this was a spot they had to win in. We can harp on a few missed calls at the end of the game (that was still an illegal screen), but the Knicks turned the ball over an astronomical amount of times.
The Knicks only secured eight offensive rebounds and were outscored in the paint. Considering the second-half swing the Knicks took — where they kicked up the intensity and won 72-62 — they're in a strong position.
Meanwhile, the Pacers let an elusive road win slip between their fingers. Limiting the Knicks on the glass and forcing so many turnovers from a team that's not ordinarily flippant with the basketball will be difficult to replicate.
Turner is a key piece for the Pacers; I like him to exceed 17.5 points, given the single coverage the Knicks are employing.
However, Brunson should continue to get his and be the most impactful offensive player in this series. His points prop is set at a lofty 37.5, a number he's exceeded in five straight games.
Considering Indiana has shown no answers for him, it's not unreasonable to think he would exceed that. I'll tone it down a bit though with 30+ and Knicks ML (-130).
I expect the Knicks to win and cover while they defend home court and head to Indiana up 2-0.
