The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks are set to face off in the Eastern Conference Semifinals after taking care of the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, respectively, in the first round. I expect this to be an exciting series with two dominant guards leading each team in Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson.
Indiana won the regular-season series 2-1, but it's hard to put much stock into that as the Knicks did not have OG Anunoby for any of those games while Pascal Siakam played in just two of those contests for the Pacers. These teams are situated differently at this juncture.
Haliburton and Brunson are the engines of their respective offenses.
Haliburton is a master of full-court spacing. He finds the open man with jump passes and pushes the pace to keep the defense on its heels — he also has a 3-point shot that forces defenses to pick him up by the logo. Haliburton's court vision is akin to a painter's as he sees outcomes before they are otherwise evident.
On the other hand, Brunson weaves through and manipulates a defense like a master sculptor as he draws defenders off their feet with the body control to finish through contact — his gravity then allows him to carve a defense from the inside out.
A painter vs. a sculptor. A contrast of skills will be on display and the opponent's ability to adapt will be the determining factor in this series.
Brunson has dominated throughout the postseason and is the rightful favorite to lead the series in scoring. He has eviscerated Indiana with games of 28, 40 and 39 points — he should be this series' scoring leader.
BetMGM has the best price (-500, – 83.3% implied), but I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze given potential injury would derail this. I will sit this market out, but if FanDuel opens the "Popular Parlays – Featured" market and offers a "to Score 40+ or 50+ in Any Game …" I'll be all over that. If the price is right for a 30+ in every game, I'd play that, too.
Looking at this season series between these teams, Brunson scored by far the most points of any player (35.7 PPG). He's followed by Julius Randle (28.0), Donte DiVincenzo (24.0) and Alec Burks (22.0) before we get to the first Pacer in Haliburton (19.7). Myles Turner (18.7) and Siakam (18.5) are also not far behind.
Haliburton dominated in assists (13.3), with the next-closest player being a bit of a surprise in Isaiah Hartenstein (6.0). The price on Haliburton to lead the Series in assists is as short as -125 (bet365). That is a bet.
During the playoffs, the assist numbers are closer (Haliburton 9.3) and Brunson (9.0 – +165 FD) but the concern is that Indiana has done an excellent job of limiting assists — especially in the perimeter — throughout the entire season. That is a manner in which Brunson racks up his assists. Haliburton's passing pedigree makes him the rightful favorite especially at that number.
However, there's also value on two other players: T.J. McConnell (+5000, BetMGM) and Josh Hart (+25000, DraftKings). The number on Hart will absolutely move, but I think both are worth a sprinkle down to +4000. These can be looked at as insurance bets in case an injury befalls Haliburton or Brunson.
Both McConnell and Hart averaged 4.5 assists per game in the first round and McConnell had games of 8 and 9 while Hart had a few at 5 and 6. Each possesses double-digit-assist upside. It's worth noting Hart's role is rather secure considering he's played at least 42 minutes in each of the Knicks' six playoff games.
Staying with Hart, he is a prohibitive favorite to be the Rebounds Leader (-500). I think there's a bit of value on Hartenstein (+1900, FanDuel) since he led the season series at 14 RPG — however, none of those games featured Mitchell Robinson. This market is a likely stay away, but similar to Brunson, I would look for a Hart to record X rebounds in every game.
The market with the most value from a series-leader perspective is 3s leader. Here are the leaders from the season series (the first number listed is average makes and the second is average attempts):
- Knicks: DiVincenzo (4.3/12.0), Alec Burks (4.0/7.0)
- Pacers: Aaron Nesmith (4.3/8.0), Haliburton (2.7/8.3), Turner (2.7/3.3)
For some context, Turner had one game where he went 6-for-8 from deep — in the other two games, he was 0-for-0 and 2-for-2. Additionally, Turner leads all players between these teams with 3.0/6.8 from 3 this postseason. Haliburton (2.7/9.0) and Brunson (2.3/7.7) are the only players with more volume through the playoffs.
My bets here are on Turner (+3500, DraftKings) and Nesmith (+5000, BetMGM). I'd consider a play on DiVincenzo throughout the series if he slips a bit behind the leader. Turner can stretch the floor well against the Knicks' bigs and provide useful spacing. Considering the Knicks allowed Joel Embiid to make 13 3s against them in the first round, there's plenty of film on the Knicks allowing that shot to centers.
As for Nesmith, his history against the Knicks speaks for itself. In three games, he has played at least 30 minutes in each and has gone 7-for-11, 3-for-6 and 3-for-7 from deep. Nesmith played significant minutes during the Pacers' first-round series against Milwaukee.
He's averaging 11 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.0/6.5 (3PM/3PA) in 35 minutes per game this postseason. Nesmith is a solid defensive option, so he should not get played off the court. I'm going to take him for Series 3s Leader as well (+5000. BetMGM).
For Game 1, I like Nesmith to exceed 12.5 Points (+102, FanDuel), a number he's cleared in five of six games against the Knicks the last two seasons, and 3+ 3s (+200, FanDuel).
This series is stylistically interesting, the Pacers limit assists and 3s and allow looks at the rim and short-to-mid range. Those are looks the Knicks want on a regular basis.
Brunson should be able to get into the teeth of Indiana's defense. It behooves both teams to push the pace. The Pacers can try to avoid the Knicks' set half-court defense while the Knicks thrive at exploiting mismatches when led by Brunson. The Pacers do not have the best defense and if the Knicks can keep them on their heels, it sets up for a high-scoring series.
Bets:
- 1 Unit – Tyrese Haliburton Series Assists Leader (-125 bet365)
- 0.05 Units – T.J. McConnell Series Assists Leader (+5000 BetMGM)
- 0.05 Units – Josh Hart Series Assists Leader (+25000 DraftKings)
- 0.5 Units – Myles Turner Series 3s Leader (+3500 DraftKings)
- 0.5 Units – Aaron Nesmith Series 3s Leader (+5000 BetMGM)
- 0.75 Units – Aaron Nesmith over 12.5 Points Game 1 (+102 FanDuel)
- 0.25 Units – Aaron Nesmith 3+ 3s Game 1 (+200 FanDuel)
Bets to Watch:
- Jalen Brunson to score 40+ or 50+ in a Game
- Josh Hart to record 10+ Rebounds in Every Game
