It’s Too Late For Draymond Green To Save The Warriors

It's too late to apologize, and it's too late for Draymond Green to save the Golden State Warriors.

Green was reinstated by the NBA this past weekend and began ramping up to return to action following an indefinite suspension after his backhanded chop of Jusuf Nurkić on Dec. 12. Green said on his podcast this week that the pressure and stress had become too much and he was planning to retire, but NBA commissioner Adam Silver talked him out of it.

Now he returns to a Warriors team that is 17-19 and has has lost five of its last seven. Golden State has dealt with injuries to Gary Payton II and Chris Paul (now out with a fractured hand), internal strife with Jonathan Kuminga questioning his lack of playing time and role, and what certainly appears to be a diminishing core. The Warriors have lost their minutes this season with Stephen Curry on the floor, and by even more with Klay Thompson on the court.

The Warriors are 12th in offense and 22nd in defense. But Green's return is unlikely to be the spark that saves the Warriors.

Golden State has gone 10-10 without Green this season. That would be encouraging on its own, a sign that different rotations and better play may turn them around. But that includes a five-game winning streak versus four teams under .500 and a Boston team on the road without Kristaps Porziņģis in a game that went to overtime. From there, the Warriors lost three in a row and five of their last seven.

I've written about how the Warriors are losing the Curry minutes this season, a stat that makes a positive record essentially impossible even before Paul's injury hurt their one strength: the bench. But the Warriors are also losing the Curry-Green minutes for the first time ever.

Warriors fans will rightly cry foul, that the culprit is Andrew Wiggins, with whom every lineup has been crushed this season. But even when you take Wiggins off, Curry-Green lineups have been outscored by 1.3 points for every 100 possessions. And for those who believe Kuminga is some hidden secret, lineups with Curry, Green and Kuminga without Wiggins got housed in the scant minutes they played together.

You see the pattern? There's been no saving grace. Last season, as the Warriors struggled to regain their championship form and needed a late surge to avoid the play-in tournament, they could keep their confidence in the starting unit. The starters last season — Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green and Kevon Looney — had the best net rating of any lineup when available. I noted before the playoffs, though, that those lineups had also lost the games they played in despite the great stats.

But the problem this season is much worse. It used to be the Warriors could dominate with their best, and struggled with all the other margin minutes. But now they're losing the minutes with their best players. Brandin Podziemski's emergence, Kuminga and Moses Moody's development, none of it matters if the Warriors can't beat other starting units.

This is all basketball stuff, though. The bigger problem is a more existential one. Green outright admitted he thought about hanging it up. Once you open that door, it's difficult to close it. Even Thomspon talked recently about his recognition of his basketball mortality and looking to just "enjoy the last chapter."

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After the loss to the Raptors, Thompson was defiant about the Warriors' chances. But more and more, Golden State is reaching for the magical formula that made it not just a champion but a dynasty and one of the best teams in the history of the NBA. And that magic is becoming more and more rare.

Green is also tilting more and more as time goes on. He reportedly has no relationship with Kuminga, which could help explain why Kuminga went to the media and not his coaches with his frustrations. For all the talk about how Jordan Poole was the source of the team's poor chemistry last season, you cannot argue it's been improved this year with Green there and Poole gone.

Green shot really well to start the season before his suspension, including 43% from 3, the highest of his career. He's still an elite defender, but the Warriors' personnel is not as well fit to take advantage. Green helped revolutionize the league as a small-ball center, but the league now is more defined by size (combined with requisite shooting) than it has been in a decade.

Green is a legend, a champion and a Hall of Famer. But the Warriors' problems are so deep and wide that his return won't magically turn them around. Maybe the Warriors can rattle off a strong month of play to save themselves from missing the playoffs and even avoid the play-in. But the Warriors' magic seems to have faded, and everyone realizes it but them.