We are less than a week from Ja Morant's potential return from suspension. There could be positive stories about him coming to save the Grizzlies, about how he's changed and grown during his time away from the game, about how hungry he is to remind everyone of his place in the game.
Instead, here's the headline over on the World Wide Leader:
Cue the sad trombone noise.
This isn't a new accusation or trial; it's a civil suit from a 2022 incident that's been on the docket for some time.
But it's a reminder that everything with Morant comes with a question of when the other shoe will drop again.
The Grizzlies need Morant. They are 6-16 with the 27th-ranked schedule-adjusted offense. Morant alone will help take pressure off Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson — who have both been great while he's been out despite the Grizzlies' woes — and raise the floor for the supporting role players. 30-plus minutes of reliable All-NBA level play.
But there are still so many questions left with Memphis as Morant returns that it's hard to feel good about what direction this will take.
Can Morant even save this team?
The Grizzlies have settled in on defense. They are 13th on the season and fifth-best in the last two weeks per CleaningTheGlass.com. But they don't have shooting beyond Bane. The league average offensive rating is 114.9 per CTG. No one on the Grizzlies has an on-court offensive rating above 113.1. The offense is not league average or better with any of the 18 players to get time on-court for Memphis.
Morant can help; he'll score, and he's an underrated passer. He can provide a reliable pick-and-roll combo with Jackson and will make sets with Bismack Biyombo better. His gravity will open things for other shooters.
The Grizzlies will also get healthier. Marcus Smart will return, and he might help lineups with Morant more than he did (or didn't) without Ja. Kennard is out another few weeks to add another shooter.
But Memphis isn't elite defensively, and their offensive floor is so low it's hard to see Morant making enough of an impact on an individual or five-man basis.
Will Morant really stay out of trouble?
Morant went to a "facility" following his first major bit of trouble last March and returned with promises he'd gotten himself right, only to make the same mistakes again, prompting this longer suspension over the summer.
There has been no real interview where Morant has said he recognizes the mistakes he made or has made changes to his lifestyle, particularly when it comes to the close associates around him who have been involved in some pretty scary situations.
You can look back at the history of the NBA and find plenty of players who struggled with the money and fame early in their careers and grew out of it. You can also look back and find players who never really understood that they had to make changes or risk their standing. Which is Morant? There's no way to know.
Will the Grizzlies "go for it"?
Memphis was the 2-seed in each of the last two seasons. They were considered a title contender before tough flameouts vs. the Warriors and Lakers.
But the season will be 30% of the way done when Morant returns, and he'll likely miss a few games from here until the end. They are ten games under .500.
Teams never say this — because the league would fine them into oblivion– but a lot of times, teams that aren't tanking aren't really "going for it," either. They recognize that they don't have the pieces and use that season to evaluate talent and plan for the long term. The Nuggets did this in 2021-22 without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. and then loaded up that summer. There are teams this season that teams suspect may not be focused as much on contention as evaluation.
Will Memphis make more trades to try and address the fact that none of their young bench talent (Ziare Williams, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, Kenny Lofton Jr.) have worked out? Will they buckle down and try and make an unlikely run? Or will they just get Morant back, get through this season, hopefully get Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke back next year, and focus on next season?
All of these questions suggest that Morant's return could certainly make the Grizzlies better… but not good. Had Morant been around from the beginning, if he hadn't been suspended, who knows where the Grizzlies would be. But as is, you should not be betting on playoff futures, play-in futures, or win total overs until we get a more stable idea of exactly what Memphis will look like when Morant is back.
You hope a young team will have questions early, figure out the answers, and develop into a contender. Memphis got too good, too quick, and suffered the other side of fortune in droves. Until they've weathered that storm. you shouldn't put any stock in their journey.
