The Knicks head home to Madison Square Garden to take on the Cavaliers in Game 3 of their first round NBA playoff series.
And while New York was as offensively efficient as can be in a Game 1 win, the exact opposite was true for a Game 2 in which the Knicks put up just 90 points.
And a large factor as to why was an uncharacteristically bad shooting display by Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, going 5-for-17 from the field, including 1-for-8 from three. The Knicks live and die by his production, and while he was still able to put up 20 points from free throws, a bad day at the office for Brunson is a bad day in the office for New York.
But he's expected to bounce back now that he's playing at the Garden, according to the Action Network's proprietary algorithms.
Those betting models indicate a sharp edge on one of Brunson's NBA player props on Friday night — and it's bullish on how he'll do.
The models consider every aspect of this game — quantitative and qualitative — and develops a fair value line for each NBA player prop on the slate.
Jalen Brunson Player Prop Predictions, Projections
The algorithms are confident that Brunson will bounce back — especially from the field.
The models expect the Knicks' marquee free agent acquisition to put up 26.0 points on Friday night. That's relative to a market-best line of o23.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
That's on a projection that Brunson will shoot only moderately better than the 5-for-17 display he sputtered up in Game 2. Any better and 24 points should be relatively straightforward.
This pick has a roughly 9.5% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 9.5% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 9.5% in expected value.
Do keep in mind that these betting models work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
