Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 1 Odds
| Nuggets | -6.5 (-105) |
| Lakers | +6.5 (-115) |
| Total | 222.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Date | Tuesday, May 16 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Tuesday afternoon.
The Western Conference Finals tip off tonight and they feature a rematch of the 2020 Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets.
All of the talk surrounding the Nuggets tends to be about two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. However, there has been a Robin to his Batman over the years and that's Jamal Murray.
Murray has elevated his game in the playoffs. The sharpshooter averaged 20 points per game through the regular season. During the first round against the Timberwolves, he averaged over 27 points. In the last round against the Suns, he averaged 24 points.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Murray player prop tonight at BetMGM. The prognostication expects Murray to outperform his expected totals.
It's a bet on the over.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Jamal Murray Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms expect Murray to outperform his totals for points, rebounds and assists.
The models think Murray's PRA total for Game 1 is way too low. BetMGM has set the PRA total for Murray at 35.5 with -120 on the over and -110 on the under. That is the best price on the over in the market.
Murray went over that total in three of the five games during the first round and three out of six games during the second round. In some games, Murray blew that number out of the water.
Our algorithms like the matchup against the Lakers.
The model predicts Murray will total 39.9 points, rebounds and assists tonight. That's good enough for about a 20% betting edge on the over.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
