76ers vs. Celtics Odds
| 76ers Odds | +9.5 |
| Celtics Odds | -9.5 |
| Over/Under | 214.5 |
| Date | Monday, May 1 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | TNT |
| Odds via BetMGM as of Monday | |
Jayson Tatum and the Celtics open up their second round NBA playoff series against the 76ers on Monday night.
The Celtics are massive favorites to emerge from the series unscathed — Boston is -450 at BetMGM to win — on account of presumptive MVP Joel Embiid's absence. While the big man is expected to miss at least Game 1, he figures to return at some point this postseason from a knee injury. How effective he is when he returns — and what limitations are present — remains to be seen.
So, as of now, the markets are incredibly bullish on the Celtics' prospects. But have they overrated some of the players' props as a result of this bullishness?
For Game 1 between the 76ers and Celtics on Monday night, the Action Network's proprietary betting algorithms indicate a sizable edge on Tatum's player props.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Jayson Tatum Player Prop Projection, Prediction
The algorithms think the market is drastically undervaluing Tatum's rebounds and assists market on Monday.
Those aren't ordinarily the markets you would favor when betting an offensive machine like Tatum. And especially with Embiid out of the fray, Tatum should get far more looks at the rim after driving past Tobias Harris. The 76ers this season have played Tatum by slotting Harris on him and having Embiid come in to clean up when Tatum drives to the cup.
Without Embiid in the fray, there will be constraints. Not only is Tatum expected to score more off of those one-on-one opportunities — he'll be able to find more seamless passes against a slower rotating big man.
But by that same ilk, Tatum will get more looks on the glass.
Tatum is expected to put up about 14.9 rebounds and assists on Monday night. Meanwhile, the best price on the market for that line is over 13.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
This pick has a roughly 7% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 7% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 7% in expected value.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
Jayson Tatum Best Player Prop: Over 13.5 rebounds and assists (via Action Network PRO tools)
