Tonight is the first opportunity to see the new-look super-team in the East, as Jimmy Butler will make his Philadelphia 76ers debut. Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Sixers won't be juggernauts right away, either (though playing the Magic will help).
Here are four key elements to start watching right away with the new-look Sixers.
1. Ben Simmons has the most to adjustment coming
Simmons will have the ball less, that's a basic supply-and-demand function. Joel Embiid will need his same amount of touches. Butler can play a two-man game easier with Embiid. Butler will get his touches; he's the superstar for whom they just traded multiple assets.
Markelle Fultz's frankly depressing issues have masked the issues Simmons' game now presents. Opponents are wise to Simmons' inability to shoot, and the game plan against him is starting to reflect it.
Simmons gets 24.6% of all his scoring possessions in transition, which is the ninth-highest percentage for any player with at least 50 total transition possessions this season, according to Synergy Sports.
That's where he's getting most of his points — and even there, he's struggled. He has the highest turnover rate in transition (29%) of any player in the league and is 20th percentile scoring.
Now, Simmons is an incredible playmaker, so naturally, his points per possession mark skyrockets when you factor in assists.
The struggle comes with how he and Butler fit together. Opponents will likely start helping off Simmons more when Butler has the ball, daring him to make them pay with cuts, which he absolutely can.
The key is that Simmons will have to find more ways to be impactful off-ball, more in the mold of what Lonzo Ball does (and Ball isn't exactly killing it so far in LA).
Defensively, Simmons will help Butler and vice versa. That's a natural fit. If the opponent's primary wing threat is bigger, Simmons can counter with his length and athleticism. If the opponent is smaller, sick Butler's dogged pressure on him. With Embiid as the backline defense, an already incredible defense should improve…
If they have enough size.
2. Are the Sixers too small now?
Butler's 6-8, so this isn't about him. But losing Saric (6-9), and Covington (6-10), who both came with big athletic frames, is going to hurt. They have to replace them with Wilson Chandler — who has had serious injury concerns over the past six years and who has offensive limitations — and Landry Shamet at 6-4, along with more minutes for J.J. Redick.
The Sixers are much more perimeter oriented now. They had been able to reinforce the defense around Embiid's rim protection with big defenders who could cover ground quickly and contain on the edge. Not having that size matters. Shorter arms and smaller bodies are easier for wings to get around on kick-outs. That forces Embiid to rotate more aggressively … which opens up the weakside. You get the idea.
Notably, though, the defense with Embiid, Saric and Covington wasn't great this year so far. The trio had surrendered 106.9 points per 100 possessions together, while Embiid without the two had a defensive rating around 93, while Embiid's overall defensive rating is at 101.
But any time Embiid is off the floor, the 76ers' defensive problems will probably increase.
Butler himself makes the best version of the Sixers better, but it also means all other iterations may struggle more, unless Chandler can really have a career defensive year or the Sixers add someone through buyout like Trevor Ariza.
3. Floor balance
Butler is ball-dominant, but high-assist player. Like a lot of modern stars, he's great at finding the open man and is crafty as a passer, he's just going to dribble for about 14 seconds before that play happens.
With the aforementioned issues with Simmons' half-court spacing, Redick becomes vital. And that's going to require the timing to be right for Redick to come off screens and get open just as Butler is forcing defensive reactions in the pick and roll. The same goes for Landry Shamet.
The Sixers are unique to have this much talent, but they also need to keep the lanes open. Using Embiid in pick-and-pop situations will help with that. It forces the defense up to the level of the ball to deal with those two, which opens the backdoor for Simmons and underneath cut routes for Redick and Shamet. We're also likely to see more minutes for stretch 4 Mike Muscala.
Keeping that balance will be key, and it connects to the pressure on Simmons to make defenses pay because the new scouting report on the Sixers will likely call for trapping Butler, doubling Embiid, and forcing anyone else on the Sixers to make them pay.
There are simple counters to this that the Sixers can exploit, but we'll need to see them adjust on the fly.
4. The Super Draymond
Back when Simmons was a draft prospect, I broached the idea of using Simmons as a super version of Warriors playmaker Draymond Green.
Simmons has operated more as the point guard in Philadelphia so far, but the addition of Butler makes this concept even more attractive.
Instead of using Simmons off-ball, have Simmons set the screen for Butler's wing defender, then roll to the rim. Butler can find Simmons rolling if the defense traps him. That would allow Simmons to attack with a straight-line drive to the rim without worrying about the jumper or teams going under the screen as they do when he's the ball-handler.
If the help defense comes, Simmons can kick to the corner for a 3 or lob to Embiid. This gets all three superstars involved without taking away from any of their individual strengths or playing into any of their weaknesses, outside of Simmons' proclivity for sloppy turnovers.
Use Simmons this way, and the Sixers may have a juggernaut. Otherwise, there could be awkwardness as the fit struggles in Philadelphia, with no way of knowing how
