Heat vs. Nuggets Game 2 Odds
| Nuggets | -8.5 (-110) |
| Heat | +8.5 (-110) |
| Total | 215.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Date | Sunday, June 4 |
| Time | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Sunday afternoon.
Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off tonight featuring the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.
The Nuggets showed in Game 1 why they were billed as massive favorites in the series after cruising to an 11-point victory while never trailing in the game.
Much of the talk on the Miami side was about the disappointing performance from Jimmy Butler. Butler scored just 13 points on 6-for-14 shooting and never looked like much of a factor in the game.
If the Heat want any shot at beating the Nuggets, it's clear that they will have to do it on the back of Butler.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Butler player prop tonight at BetMGM. The prognostication expects Butler to outperform his expected point total.
It's a bet on the over.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Jimmy Butler Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms expect Butler to outperform his total for points tonight.
The models think Butler's point total for Game 2 is way too low. BetMGM has set Butler's point total for 26.5 with -110 on the over and -120 on the under.
Butler went over that total in three of four games against the Celtics where he took 15 or more shots. He took just 14 shots in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets. It is fair to assume Butler will have to take a higher volume of shots if the Heat want to have success.
In playoff games so far following a game where Butler has taken fewer than 15 shots, he has taken at least 19 shots in the next game.
Our algorithms like the matchup against the Nuggets and predict Butler will score 31.3 points tonight. That's good enough for an edge above 18% on his point total.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 26.5 Points (-110)
