What does an MVP season look like?
Is it the best player on the best team? Is it the most impactful player towards winning? Is it the best player in the league? Is it the guy who scores the most points per game?
On Saturday, the reigning MVP, who has been given every excuse, every opportunity, every explanation for his many moments of failure, gave NBA fans another letdown.
Joel Embiid missed Saturday’s ABC game vs. the defending champion Denver Nuggets and two-time MVP and reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic. He was listed out at the last minute with “knee soreness.”
Embiid was not listed on the injury report the day before the game, nor on any subsequent injury report the day of the game, until he was listed out minutes before tip. Embiid missed a stretch of games recently with knee issues, then returned to play. He tweaked his knee during the Sixers’ loss to the Indiana Pacers but played the rest of the game, scoring 31 points in 31 minutes.
He was not listed on the injury report ahead of the Nuggets game with a sprain or anything at all. Did the Sixers medical staff just forget to assess Embiid? Embiid is listed as questionable for over half the games each season and still plays in most of them.
Let’s start here: Embiid has not played in the state of Colorado since November 2019. Before the pandemic. It’s been more than four years since Embiid has played in altitude, including last year when he played in a back-to-back on a Saturday in Golden State and then missed the Nuggets game Monday.
When the Sixers came to Colorado for training camp, Deion Sanders called out Embiid for "ducking" Jokic in the matchup and challenged him. Nonetheless, Embiid was nowhere to be found at tipoff Saturday while fans chanted "Where's Embiid at?" until the fourth quarter, when Embiid emerged from the locker room and then egged on a chorus of boos.
Embiid's absence shouldn’t be a surprise even in the context of this season; however. Embiid has missed five games vs. teams over .500 on the road this season, including games vs. the East-leading Celtics, the West-leading Timberwolves and the Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat.
He has played in almost every home game vs. top opponents, including wins vs. the Celtics, Timberwolves, and the Nuggets two weeks ago.
Embiid has also been available for games vs. the Hornets twice, the Pistons, the Raptors, and the Wizards. In total, Embiid has three games on the road vs. teams over .500 this season: the season opener vs. Milwaukee, a road game in November vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder and 208-lb. center Chet Holmgren, and the loss this week to the Pacers (who many players have enjoyed huge scoring outputs against).
Embiid leads the league in scoring. He is the favorite to repeat as the league’s Most Valuable Player this season despite being now just seven games away from disqualification due to the NBA’s new 65-game limit for the award.
But if Embiid plays the required 65 games, voters may have to reckon with this reality: Embiid has not missed games where he was most likely to dominate. He has consistently missed games where there was any pressure or the situation was not advantageous, like Saturday on the road without Tyrese Maxey (injury) and Tobias Harris (illness).
Embiid dropped 70 on the Spurs with Zach Collins and Victor Wembanyama, who he enjoys an 80-lb. size advantage against. He has missed road games vs. the toughest opponents.
I need to give Embiid the benefit of the doubt, despite how much I’ve criticized his playoff play. Embiid did tweak his knee vs. the Pacers. It would be totally understandable for Embiid to be listed as questionable with knee soreness, let alone a sprain after that game. After the game, the responsibility was placed on the training staff. Most star players will tell you that while they have to listen to the training staff for their long-term health, in most cases where they are questionable, star players can elect to play.
None of the sequence of events Saturday make much sense through those lenses if it was as simple as the training staff telling Embiid not to play and him agreeing to their demand.
But on the other hand, what if he misses a week? Maybe this will wind up being a multi-game absence for Embiid. But chances are high that he'll be available for games vs. the Blazers or Jazz next week — both road games.
Embiid, like most players, is likely hurting. He’s prone to injuries come playoff time, one of the reasons his availability has always been a question mark and why Embiid won MVP last season with 66 games played, the least of any player in an 82-game season since Bill Walton in 1978.
His play in the games he’s played has been MVP-worthy. He has dominated, and dominating bad teams is certainly instrumental to putting up the kinds of numbers that earn you consideration.
It’s important to note that Embiid has been dominant at home even against tough competition. He averages 33 points per game vs. teams over .500 at home this season. (He averages 39 points per game at home vs. teams under .500.) He’s won big games vs. the Wolves, Celtics and Nuggets.
Should you have to play tough teams on the road to win MVP? Does it matter if you made sure you were available and dominated at home vs. Jokic, and then either weren’t able to or made the decision not to go on the road where you haven’t played since before the COVID-19 pandemic?
Embiid has consistently said that he doesn’t care about the MVP this season. (Notably, he said the same thing the last two seasons in interviews where he made his case and threw passive barbs at Jokic.) An optimal outcome for him might be to play fewer than 65 games and dominate so completely in the games he plays in (vs. select opponents) that his fans can say, "If it weren't for the rule, he would have won."
Sixers partisans will note that Embiid's regular-season accomplishments get swept aside because of playoff failures, and then he gets criticized for resting to try and stay healthy for a playoff run. They're not wrong that the "rings or bust" culture creates a toxic environment that makes it tough for players to win.
But that's the bar when you want to be considered the best in the world. All that's being asked of Embiid is to compete the way his contemporaries do. Giannis Antetokounmpo plays short-handed when he can go and doesn't duck games vs. Embiid, the Celtics or anyone else. Jokic missed 13 games last season, and it was the most he's missed in his career. He's gone to Philly and got his backside kicked the last two years.
Those players respect the game, the league and its fans enough to compete when they can. Thus far this season, Embiid has elected to compete when he's in an advantageous spot, at home or against inferior competition. It's built him an MVP resume and the Sixers a top-3 seed in the East. But Saturday wasn't just a disappointing moment for the league, which has tried to avoid such public image disasters, and for the fans who paid higher prices to attend the MVP showdown or watch from home.
It's disappointing because this season, the Sixers have a real chance to make a run at the title. Nick Nurse has been such an upgrade coaching-wise, and the roster is deeper and better balanced than ever. They can win the title; they can beat Denver in Denver. They're good enough.
The question now is how voters will react if Embiid does play enough games. Last season, there was a bizarre level of pushback for Jokic, including questions about his postseason performance when Jokic had already made the conference finals, and Embiid had yet to escape the second round. Now, Joker is the reigning Finals MVP, and Embiid once again exited in the second round.
The MVP award should be about the regular season, but how will voters deal with their own inconsistencies, punishing Jokic for the very failings that define Embiid's postseason career?
If the question is about basketball, Embiid's more than worthy. He's having his best season by far, far better than last season, and while the advanced metrics paint a picture of a close race, Embiid has felt more dominant (in part because, well, he destroys those sub-.500 teams to the tune of 39 points per game).
But if Embiid could have played and chose not to, he thumbed his nose at everyone Saturday. He did a metaphorical crotch chop at the Nuggets, the NBA, its fans, its TV partners and the idea of wanting to compete. It's all a big joke to Troell Embiid.
If Embiid plays enough games and continues this pattern of when he does play, MVP voters will have to decide if they enjoy being the punchline.
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