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There's a chance Jrue Holiday could come off the bench for the Boston Celtics this season, and that chance alone means you should bet Holiday right now to win NBA Sixth Man of the Year.
What sort of player typically wins Sixth Man of the Year in the NBA? First, we want a high scorer.
Over the past decade, the Sixth Man of the Year has averaged 17.8 PPG. Reigning 6MOY Malcolm Brogdon's 14.9 PPG last year were the second lowest in a decade for the winner, as the previous five winners had all been at 18.4 PPG and up.
The other consistent pattern for Sixth Man of the Year has been winning players. All but one 6MOY over the past decade played for a team with at least a 48-win pace and which made the playoffs, and they combined for a 52.9-win pace on average.
So when looking for a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, we want a 16-to-18 PPG scorer, preferably a guard, on a 50-win playoff team.
Enter Jrue Holiday.
Holiday has scored at least 17.7 PPG in six straight seasons, averaging 19.1 PPG during that stretch. He's not a gunner by any stretch, but he'll definitely score. He also plays for the NBA title favorites — a status in part earned because they acquired him — so getting 48 wins and a playoff berth shouldn't be hard either.
Boston is not particularly deep, again in part because of the Holiday trade, so Holiday will surely play plenty of minutes and get more than enough shots to score. And don't forget, the current reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Malcolm Brogdon, played last season for Boston, so we already have an easy blueprint.
Holiday is All-NBA caliber, and he's also one of the most well-liked and respected players in the league, for both on- and off-court reasons.
If Jrue Holiday plays enough and is eligible to win Sixth Man of the Year by starting at least half his games off the bench, NBA voters will practically fall all over themselves to reward him with a 6MOY trophy.
So will Holiday actually come off the bench?
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He did in the Celtics' preseason opener on October 8, and he's talked about being open to not starting and just wanting to do what's needed to win. Some Celtics reporters are speculating that Holiday could come off the bench, and ESPN's Zach Lowe suggested the same on his recent Lowe Post podcast:
"I don't think this was a one-off. … I think this has some legs potentially," said Lowe. "I think they like the look and feel of having two All-Star perimeter ball handlers. … They are going to close games with Jrue Holiday on the floor. I think it (Holiday as Sixth Man) has some legs."
If we knew right now that Holiday would play more games off the bench than as a starter (the only requirement for 6MOY eligibility), I might honestly consider betting him against the field. He would be an overwhelming favorite for the award. The bet we're making on Holiday, then, is really just whether he comes off the bench enough.
Holiday isn't even listed as an option at most books. I bet him yesterday at FanDuel at +7500, but I think there's still value there at +2500.
Jrue Holiday 6MOY +7500 FD
Real talk of coming off bench. If so, he's instantly top 5 for 6MOY, maybe #1.
He'll play heavy minutes, score plenty & close games, & every voter loves him.
Prob drops to +1000 if he's confirmed off bench. 15% chance he does? Let’s find out. https://t.co/qW8UI4ePIF
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) October 15, 2023
Part of the value is that there's not another super obvious 6MOY candidate this year, someone like Tyler Herro two seasons ago. The top options in the betting market are names like Immanuel Quickley, Norman Powell, Malcolm Brogdon (now in Portland), and Holiday's new teammate, Derrick White.
White is listed as short as +800 at BetRivers, where he's a co-favorite for the award. Simple deduction tells us those are effectively the odds Holiday would have if he comes off the bench, since White would presumably start in his place. If anything, Holiday's odds are probably shorter as the better player.
At +2500, we're getting 3.9% implied at a win. Is there a 3.9% chance Holiday comes off the bench enough to win the award? Considering the bread crumbs we're seeing so far, it's worth paying to find out.
