Julius Randle Is Done for the Season
The New York Knicks built a serious contender — not around star shopping and overextending their assets as they have done for two decades — but instead by actually building a great roster around a playoff performer in Jalen Brunson and adding in OG Anunoby around a core of great bigs (Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson) and good wings (Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo).
But injuries are threatening to derail their most promising season since 2013. Anunoby is currently out with elbow bursitis, and his return is unknown. Robinson is still getting back in game shape from a long injury absence.
And now – the worst news – Julius Randle's season is over, as he will undergo surgery to repair a torn labrum. Randle explored every rehab option to try and return this season, but as ESPN reported, multiple specialists recommended surgery.
Randle’s done everything possible to avoid surgery and return for the playoffs, but procedure became an increasing inevitability after recent visits to two specialists who warned of further injury and possible permanent damage to shoulder if he returned to play before a surgical…
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) April 4, 2024
Randle deserves a lot of credit for trying to avoid surgery so he could join the team for the playoffs, but ultimately, he's got to protect his long-term health and earning potential. So now the Knicks go forward without a two-time All-NBA player in their hopes of making a run in the Eastern Conference.
The Knicks Aren't Done Yet
But hold on because I'm not quite sure the Knicks are done yet.
The Knicks are now +2300 to win the Eastern Conference at FanDuel, behind the Cleveland Cavaliers +1200 and the Miami Heat +1600. That's not a huge differential; the Cavs have a 7.7% implied probability, the Heat a 5.9% chance and the Knicks a 4.2% chance.
But more importantly, the path is still there for the Knicks to surprise the East… if they can get the rest of the team healthy and avoid any more bad luck.
Randle is always drifting between overrated and underrated, but the biggest issue is that he struggles more in the playoffs relative to the regular season. Last year in the Knicks' second-round run, the Knicks were +1.5 with him on the court and -1.5 with him off. That's a good differential, but it's also not a massive shift. Compare that to Jalen Brunson's differential, where New York was -16 with him off the court.
In the 2021 run, the Knicks were actually -12 with Randle on the court and +5.8 with him on the bench in their first-round loss to the Hawks.
Randle has improved, and in certain matchups (like the Cavaliers), he helps tremendously. This is not a black-and-white analysis of "Randle playoffs bad," but the bigger takeaway is probably that the Knicks may not need Randle for this playoff run.
This Knicks team is also considerably better. The bigger key for the Knicks is OG Anunoby. Look at the splits with and without Randle and with and without Anunoby, via PBPStats.com:
Additionally, Robinson was not available for that entire stretch. Hartenstein has been incredible for the Knicks; he's second in the league in DPM, which measures defensive box-score impact. However, Robinson is a better offensive weapon with his screens and offensive rebounding.
How to Bet the Knicks' Futures
If the Knicks can get Anunoby back as the weakside corner shooter with Brunson and Robinson running pick and roll, given their defensive strength, this Knicks team has a formula that can upset any team outside of Boston.
The questions are whether (1.) Anunoby can return and (2.) if they'll run out of gas before then. As is typical for Tom Thibodeau's players, the Knicks are playing a short rotation heavy minutes, and it's clear that the Knicks — who have lost their last three games — are starting to run out of gas. Now, the Knicks really just need to push themselves to lock themselves into a playoff seed before resting their guys for the final week of the season.
The Knicks' magic number for at least fifth seed is six, pending tiebreakers. That's very doable.
Nonetheless, bettors should stay away from the Knicks' conference odds until they see (1.) if Anunoby can return and (2.) if they can avoid the Celtics' side of the bracket. If the Knicks land the second, third or sixth seed, and Anunoby is cleared before the playoffs begin, their futures are worth betting.
Otherwise, it's a stay-away. The market has overreacted to the new of Randle's injury, but those prices will remain stable unless the Knicks make an unlikely run to the second seed, and even then there will still be a good buy-point later on.
