Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves look to spark the first 3-0 series comeback in NBA history on Sunday night in Game 4 of the first round of the NBA playoffs.
While that's unlikely — and betting on such has limited betting edge — there is a sizable edge on Towns' player props for Game 4.
The Action Network has a set of proprietary betting algorithms that indicate there's an edge on one particular Towns points, rebounds and assists prop at BetMGM.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Karl-Anthony Towns Player Prop Predictions, Projections
The algorithms are bullish on Towns' prospects against the Nuggets tonight, when he'll be featured heavily in the Timberwolves' offensive game plan.
Towns is projected to put up 39.05 points, rebounds and assists on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the best price on the market for that particular line is over 34.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
This pick has a roughly 15% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 15% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 15% in expected value.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
