Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves are three wins away from pulling off the first 3-0 series comeback in NBA history.
While that's unlikely — and betting on such has negative expected value — there is a sizable edge on Towns' player props for Game 5 of the Wolves' first round series vs. the Nuggets on Tuesday night.
Towns has put up solid numbers this series, but they haven't compared to his normal averages.
So, which Towns will we get for Game 5?
Our algorithms think there's an edge on Towns' player props at BetMGM — and are bullish about his prospects.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Karl-Anthony Towns Player Prop Projection, Prediction
The algorithms think the market is drastically undervaluing Towns' points, rebounds and assists market on Tuesday, with the Timberwolves in desperation mode.
The models also expect some positive regression from Towns in the three-point department. While he's shot about 37% from three this season, he's shooting about 10% worse so far against the Nuggets.
Towns is projected to put up 39.29 points, rebounds and assists on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the best price on the market for that particular line is over 32.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
This pick has a roughly 21% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 21% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 21% in expected value.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
