The New York Knicks are going for it.
The Knicks agreed to a trade for four-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA forward Karl-Anthony Towns on Friday night, dealing three-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA forward Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first-round pick to the Timberwolves in a three-team trade involving Charlotte. (The Hornets pick up draft compensation and DaQuan Jeffries to help facilitate the deal.)
The move has monumental impacts on both the Eastern and Western Conference title races and their markets.
For The Knicks
After the Knicks made their second-round playoff run despite significant injuries last spring, it became increasingly obvious that Randle wasn't in their long-term plans. The Knicks were interested in Towns for multiple seasons, with serious interest coming last fall, as we reported here. Unsurprisingly, Towns is represented by CAA, which has innumerable ties to the Knicks.
The trade moves Randle — a better on-ball creator at point forward, but a less efficient floor spacer and a worse off-ball weapon — for Towns, a stretch-five.
In many ways, the Knicks' intention with the move is clear. Not only does it compensate for the loss of Mitchell Robinson, who reportedly won't be ready for the start of the season and is likely to miss time until midseason, it also provides them with a stretch-five option, who better matches up with the Boston Celtics.
Towns is a better matchup for Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford as a floor spacer with post-up strength. He had a surprisingly good defensive postseason against the Suns and Nuggets before falling apart on both ends vs. the Mavericks (in what should have been a favorable matchup for him).
The concern has to be the Knicks over indexing on the Celtics and being vulnerable to other matchups, but it's also an overall talent upgrade.
Randle was always a divisive figure with the Knicks. He would have terrific All-NBA seasons followed by disappointing playoff runs and disastrous subsequent seasons, and injury issues to boot.
So to add Towns is a big win, even if it breaks up the "'Nova Knicks" with the loss of DiVincenzo, a premium shooter.
The odds for the Knicks to win the NBA title moved from +950 to +750/+700 following the move on Friday night.
For The Wolves
There are about five different ways to view this for Minnesota.
First off, the money. Every team is freaked out by the new CBA and the second-apron restrictions of the luxury tax that prohibit roster flexibility. Clearing Towns for Randle, whose contract expires this summer, provides Minnesota the ability to get under the second apron if it chooses to.
However, that's complicated by any efforts to extend Randle or Rudy Gobert this summer, especially with Gobert being 32 years old.
There are also other concerns.
Towns almost had his redemption moment in these playoffs, but has always been a player who has brought questions about his approach and maturity. The Timberwolves also ascended last season when Anthony Edwards became the best player on the team, and the future has to be about optimizing around him.
From that perspective, the addition of DiVincenzo — one of the league's best volume shooters from distance last season — matters a great deal. After losing Kyle Anderson, Jordan McLaughlin and Monte Morris in free agency and adding rookie Rob Dillingham, the Wolves bench lost a lot of veteran ballhandling and some shooting. Now, they've upgraded in shooting while adding another player with handle and some creation, on top of whatever Randle brings.
But it's not without risk.
The combination of Towns and Gobert gave teams fits with its combination of size, Gobert's defense and Towns' shooting. The Denver Nuggets, Minnesota's division rival, struggled to match up. Randle is a smaller player with a smaller wingspan and the matchup looks different.
The move of Towns may solidify Edwards as the face of the franchise, but Randle being more of an on-ball presence complicates that.
To simplify it, the Wolves saved some money by moving a player long thought to be the face of the franchise who they were ready to move on from, and added one piece that will help them in DiVincenzo and one piece that's a risk in Randle.
If it's a bad fit, it could take the Wolves to a step back from their third-place finish and Western Conference Finalist status last season, while forcing them to move an expiring Randle for even less value than they got for Towns. If it works, it might box them into a corner to extend him, which comes with its own issues.
The Wolves went from +1100 to +1000 in the market after the move, suggesting the books feel both teams improved with this trade. That doesn't happen often.
Other Angles
DiVincenzo, who Sean Little gave out on "Buckets" this week, gains value for the Sixth Man of the Year Award as the Wolves' starters are likely to be Mike Conley, Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Randle and Gobert.
Josh Hart loses value in that market as it's likely the Knicks move to Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Hart and Towns, with Hart ostensibly playing center.
Brunson's assist percentage should raise by adding Towns, who is a more efficient scorer and less off-ball, while Conley and Edwards' assists likely dip with the addition of an on-ball creator in Randle.
On paper, I make this a +0.2 gain for the Knicks and a -0.2 downgrade for the Wolves in terms of power rating (how much they should be favored vs. an average team on a neutral court). I'll likely upgrade the Knicks slightly for fit and offensive ceiling and downgrade Wolves a little more for chemistry/fit concerns, but not much. On paper, this doesn't significantly move the needle for either team in either direction.
The Wolves got a little worse for long-term options, the Knicks got a little better at the cost of their chemistry and identity from last season, which led to so much success. But like all moves that make headlines this big, how it works out on the court is a huge bet both teams are making.
