The Raptors take on the Warriors in a matchup of the best team in the league (record-wise) vs. the defending champions (and the presumptive best team in the league) Wednesday.
Are the Raptors a paper tiger again? Are they ready to beat a fully-operational Warriors team? Will the Warriors kick off the kind of run we've been waiting on from them? Is this a Finals matchup?
But maybe most importantly…
Can Kevin Durant hit the over on 27.5 points scoring vs. the Raptors?
Durant scored 51 points on 31 shots first time out vs. the Raptors, but, of course, Stephen Curry wasn't playing in that game. It was a phenomenal performance.
What's shocking, though, is how much the matchup makes me lean towards the under.
DURANT VS. KAWHI
Durant scored 21 points on 11 field goal attempts in 46 possessions with Leonard defending him in their first matchup this season.
That means, despite covering him the majority of the time, Durant generated only a third of his shots vs. Leonard.
Going back and watching the film, there were a lot of possessions where Durant simply didn't challenge Leonard. That's typical; teams often try and simply remove Leonard from the sequence by stationing his man in the corner, as his help defense winds up mucking up so much.
When they did get Durant involved with Leonard on the floor, it was mostly on off-screen action. Here the Warriors stagger screen for him, running Leonard off two defenders to try and get separation:
When it was just one, Leonard's ability to recover created stuff like this:
That possession led to Durant rushing several similar shots later.
Twenty-one points is still a lot, and doing it on 11 shots is great efficiency. But usage has to be considered here.
Without Curry, Durant was forced to carry the offense, and that led to him having to pull some heroics out of his bag. Durant can hit these shots, for sure, but look at the degree of difficulty on shots like this:
That's what it takes for Durant to get to 21 points vs. Leonard.
THE OTHER GUYS
Meanwhile, the other Raptors had mixed success. Basically, this group should be broken down into Pascal Siakam and everyone else. Per NBA's matchup data, Durant generated only eight points on 18 possessions on 3-of-10 shooting with Siakam guarding him.
The phenom's length really bothered him:
Do you know how damn hard it is to block Kevin Durant? Because I don't; there's no conceivable universe where I could get even remotely high enough to do so!
But even for NBA players, it's remarkably difficult. Those two shots highlighted were the only two blocks recorded on Durant this game, but Siakam was able to force adjustments or misses with the same kind of presence. Making Durant into a normal NBA player that has to be worried about being blocked shaves some of his efficiency off.
The other guys did not have as much luck; OG Anunoby particularly had a hard time. Because he doesn't have Leonard's size or strength, he struggles to get over the screen more here, and that means Jonas Valanciunas is in drop coverage, giving the mid-range shot to Durant. That's a problem:
The other big issue was that late in the game when the Warriors staged a comeback, they went to the well vs. the Raptors' switching defense.
Toronto will hide Kyle Lowry on Andre Iguodala (who is out tonight, by the way) vs. the Warriors, which is a great idea as it keeps Leonard, Siakam and Danny Green on Curry, Klay Thompson and Durant at all times.
But if you go to a switch, and Durant senses it — guess what? Iguodala's going to screen.
Nothing to be done there.
Durant's going to get his, but the overall evidence shows that Leonard and Siakam have the ability to disrupt him.
THE CURRY IMPACT
Curry being back obviously changes everything for Golden State, especially Durant's usage rate.
But there are trickle-down effects here, too.
If it weren't for Siakam, in particular, then this whole thing flips. If Curry gets hot, the Raptors may well put Leonard on him, which can really disrupt him. That would leave KD open to cook. However, Siakam counter-balances that, and Ibaka's presence at the rim helps considerably as well.
There's also this: Leonard switching onto Curry means more contests on passes. That doesn't mean just deflections, but those contests will make passes more off the mark so that Durant can't catch and shoot. There are all these effects that drip down.
Tonight's Prop Bet: KD Over/Under 27.5 Points?
Durant is averaging 28.8 points per game this season — the over on his 27.5-point prop. Our FantasyLabs projections, which have KILLED it, has him at 28.4 (also over). The lean is toward the over, but only ever so slightly with a Bet Quality rating of 5.
However, when we look contextually at the two teams with the kind of length KD is facing Wednesday night, we have 1) the 51-point explosion vs. Toronto, which was exceptional and yet very much a product of Curry's absence combined with some tough shots as we've demonstrated, and 2) a combined 28 points vs. Milwaukee.
Now, sure, Milwaukee's not Toronto. But defensively, those teams are very similar, led by long-armed super-robots. Durant can have a lethal 25 in a comfortable Warriors win, especially with the rest of the Raptors on a back-to-back, and should Leonard miss this game as he did Tuesday vs. the Clippers, things get muddy. But even then, I lean towards the under.
Durant's an elite scorer in the history of the game. He can go off at any point no matter the defense. There's enough evidence here to suggest, though, that Toronto represents a specific challenge to him, and it's enough to lean towards the under.
But I couldn't go without getting thoughts from our NBA props guru, Matt LaMarca, who writes a daily piece on prop bets. Here's what he had to say…
LaMarca: Kawhi Leonard still has the reputation of being an elite defender, but his stats this year are interesting.
He ranks just 20th among SFs in Defensive Real Plus-Minus this season, and the Raptors have actually allowed more points per 100 possessions with Kawhi on the floor than off the floor this season (108.4 vs. 105.6).
It’s possible he’s still shaking off some rust after missing virtually all of last season with an injury, but he appears to be living more off reputation than results at the moment.
Meanwhile, Durant is in the midst of one of the most efficient high-volume seasons we’ve ever seen.
He’s currently averaging 28.8 points per game on 51.0% shooting from the field and 93.0% shooting from the free throw line, which is something that has been previously accomplished only by himself (once), Steph Curry (once) and Larry Bird (twice).
The Warriors offense has averaged a staggering 120.2 points per 100 possessions with both Durant and Curry on the court this season.
There is surprisingly limited previous history between Durant and Leonard, but that appears to favor KD as well. They’ve faced off just twice with Durant as a member of the Warriors: once vs. the Spurs on opening night in 2016-17 – a game the Warriors ultimately lost by 29 points – and once vs. the Raptors earlier this season.
He scored at least 27 points in each of those contests and displayed his trademark efficiency, making 29-of-49 shots from the field and 15-of-17 shots from the three throw line.
I think his scoring prop for tonight’s contest is pretty spot on – we currently have him projected for 28.4 points – but I’d side with the over if I was going to bet it.
