Heat vs. Nuggets Game 3 Odds
| NuggetsOdds | -2.5 (-115) |
| HeatOdds | +2.5 (-105) |
| Total | 214.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Date | Wednesday, June 7 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon.
Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat tips off tonight.
The Heat are now carrying all of the momentum after shocking the Nuggets and giving them their first loss at home in these playoffs. The series is now tied, 1-1.
During Game 2, the Heat made one major adjustment to their starting lineup. Head coach Erik Spoelstra decided to insert Kevin Love into the starting lineup and remove Caleb Martin. The move gave the Heat more size, and Jimmy Butler was then able to guard Jamal Murray, who struggled in the game.
It can be assumed after the Heat's success that Spoelstra will leave Love in the starting lineup.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Love player prop tonight at BetMGM. The prognostication expects Love to outperform his expected point total.
It's a bet on the over.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Kevin Love Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms expect Love to outperform his total for points and assists tonight.
The models think Love's point total for Game 3 is way too low. BetMGM has set Love's point total for 7.5 with -110 on the over and -120 on the under.
Love did not play a minute in Game 1. It was difficult to tell whether that was for rest or if it was matchup-based. If it was matchup-based, Spoelstra realized he made a mistake and made that adjustment for Game 2. Love then played 22 minutes, recording six points, one assist and 10 rebounds.
In the eight games in which Love has played 20 or more minutes in the playoffs, he has gone over 7.5 points and assists in seven of them. The lone game he didn't was the last game, when he totaled seven points and assists.
Our algorithms expect Love to continue to play a big role in Game 3 and with 9.7 points and assists tonight. That's good enough for an edge above 20% on his points and assists total.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit size for each individual bet.
Pick: Kevin Love Over 7.5 Points and Assists (-110)
