The Dallas Mavericks (28-25) and Sacramento Kings (26-26) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Mavericks are 1-point favorites over the Kings on the spread, with the over/under set at 236.5 total points. Dallas is a -115 favorite to win outright, while Sacramento is -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Kings vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Monday, February 10.
Kings vs Mavericks Prediction
Spread
We've seen the market move slightly in favor of the Kings. After opening at +1.5, they're now 1-point underdogs at most sportsbooks.
While Sacramento is coming off a victory over New Orleans, it hasn't had back-to-back wins in its last nine games.
Moneyline
With Dallas now laying just a point, we're essentially getting this game at a pick'em, considering DraftKings lists the Mavericks moneyline at -115 odds.
Over/Under
Although I have a slight lean to the Under, given my model projection of 232.5 points and a 7-3 under run in this series, both teams are a combined 15-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
My Pick: Mavericks Moneyline (-115)
Kings vs Mavericks Odds, Lines, Picks
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
- Kings vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -1
- Kings vs. Mavericks over/under: 236.5 total points
- Kings vs. Mavericks moneyline: Kings -105, Mavericks -115
- Kings vs. Mavericks best bet: Mavericks ML (-115)
My Mavericks vs. Kings best bet is on Dallas to win outright on the moneyline, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Preview
Dallas and Sacramento were busy at the trade deadline, with the Mavericks swapping one superstar for another in the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, while the Kings traded away De'Aaron Fox to San Antonio and got back Chicago's Zach LaVine.
Since both deals needed three teams to complete the trades, supporting players were also involved, with some draft picks getting tossed around.
I'm not sure anyone could have predicted that talented players like Doncic and Fox would play for different teams. Getting traded while rehabbing an injury must have been even more perplexing for Doncic, who missed his final 19 games as a Dallas Maverick.
Although we don't know what happens behind the scenes, Dallas seemed to have a solid foundation and just needed to get Doncic back on the court.
I contend that this is still a good Mavericks roster, even without Doncic and Davis, who recently suffered an abductor injury.
The Mavericks didn't completely capitulate when Doncic injured his calf, as they managed to remain above .500. There is still enough talent on the team with players like Kyrie Irving (24.1 PPG), P.J. Washington (14.2 PPG), Klay Thompson (13.7 PPG) and Daniel Gafford (12.5 PPG).
Max Christie came over in the trade with Davis and has already hit the ground running, averaging 17 points over three games compared to 8.5 points in 46 appearances with the Lakers.
While I'm fully aware of his small sample size with the Mavericks, his performance is a positive reflection of the offense installed by Dallas head coach Jason Kidd.
As for the Kings, they've already fired their head coach and now traded their best player. At some point, it becomes more difficult when you're trying to overcome so many moving parts.
Dallas is a team that can win in various ways, whether by leaning into their offense or defense. In contrast, Sacramento's best chance of winning is to turn the game into a shootout. The Mavericks (28-25) are still a top-15 team on offense and defense, and according to ESPN's Relative Percent Index, their Expected Win-Loss record should be closer to 31-22.
Those underlying numbers suggest value in this Mavericks team, making them worth considering as a short home favorite.
My projection for a lower-scoring game leads me to target the Under for two player props when building my same-game parlay.
Mavericks point guard Kyrie Irving has a points + rebounds + assists prop of 38.5—a number he surpassed only once in his last six home games. Moreover, Irving has stayed under the number in his previous three meetings against the Kings.
Given the Mavericks' options, with Spencer Dinwiddie or Dante Exum running the offense, Irving might play more off the ball.
If Irving performs below his season numbers in one of the categories, there's a decent chance he'll stay under this prop.
Another player I'm looking to fade is Sacramento's Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis has a rebounds+ assists prop of 19.5 but has stayed under that projection in five straight games. The Gonzaga product isn't dishing out as many assists as he did last season, falling from 8.2 to 6.2 per game.
The emergence of Malik Monk, who has started more games and played more minutes, gives the Kings another solid passer on the floor, which might explain why the offense isn't running through Sabonis as much.
Dallas tends to play slower at home, ranking 17th with 98.9 possessions per game. Having fewer possessions could be key in keeping Sabonis under his rebounds + assists prop.
Kings vs. Mavericks Best Bet
- Mavericks ML (-115)
Kings vs Mavericks Same Game Parlay
- Kyrie Irving Under 38.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Domantas Sabonis Under 20.5 Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +228
