The Sacramento Kings (38-40) and Detroit Pistons (43-35) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Mich. The game will be broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Pistons are 7-point favorites on the spread (Pistons -7) against the Kings, with the over/under set at 230.5. Detroit is a -270 favorite to win outright, while Sacramento is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Kings vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks.
Kings vs. Pistons Picks, Prediction
Spread
This line seemed a bit high at first glance, with the Kings catching as many as 7.5 points. However, Sacramento is the worst team against the spread on short rest with a 3-10 mark.
Moneyline
While I'd lean toward the Pistons on the moneyline, the price remains steep, with odds as high as -270.
Over/Under
The total is where we could find some joy now that it's as high as 230.5. With my model projecting a number closer to 226.8, I'll share why a contrarian play on the under offers value in this spot.
My Pick: Under 230.5
Kings vs Pistons Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 230.5 -112o / -108u | +220 |
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 230.5 -112o / -108u | -270 |
- Kings vs. Pistons spread: Pistons -7
- Kings vs. Pistons over/under: 230.5 points
- Kings vs. Pistons moneyline: Kings +220, Pistons -270
- Kings vs. Pistons best bet: Under 230.5
Kings vs. Pistons Preview
Sacramento has just about locked up a spot in the Play-In tournament. The Suns sit 11th in the conference, trailing the Kings by three games with only four remaining on the schedule. As for the Pistons, they're also guaranteed to finish in the top six as they're five games ahead of the sixth-seeded Magic.
Detroit does have a bit more to play for as it could move into the fifth spot, with Milwaukee only one game in front.
Nonetheless, the final week of the NBA season is always a bit tricky because, at some point, self-interest and motivation tend to play more significant roles in our handicapping. Are we to expect the Kings to come out full of energy on the second leg of a back-to-back as they wrap up a six-game road trip?
After all, the Kings are on a 7-3 under run in their past 10 games.
If we turn to the Pistons, the average total in their games this season is 226, and the under is 39-38-1. Moreover, if we focus solely on their games with a total of 230.5 or higher, the under improves to 16-11.
This total is almost priced as if the Kings are the home team, where this season, they're 22-14-2 to the over.
The situational spot is also particularly interesting because Sacramento has alternated overs and unders in all eight games when on short rest during this campaign. If that trend holds true, we could be in line for an under on Monday night.
When you put it all together, we have favorable trends that point to the under, which couple nicely with our model projection of this being a lower-scoring game.
Kings vs. Pistons Prediction
Although we're targeting the under for our best bet, I'll go in the opposite direction by targeting a Pistons player to go over his player prop.
Detroit's Ausar Thompson has a scoring prop of 12.5, which he has exceeded in six straight games. While Thompson's season average is only 10.09 points with a median of 10.0, it's worth noting that he's averaging roughly eight additional minutes (30.8) during this run compared to his season average (22.3).
Thompson's additional playing time has led to more confidence as he's also showing a willingness to take more shots, with his field goal attempts up from 7.8 to 12.7.
If this is a sign that Pistons head coach J.B. Bickerstaff is starting to trust Thompson a bit more, then it's likely that his points prop of 12.5 remains slightly undervalued. As a result, the over warrants a strong consideration for inclusion in our same-game parlay.
Best Bet: Under 230.5 points
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Under 230.5 points
- Ausar Thompson over 12.5 points
Parlay Payout: +254
Pistons vs Kings Betting Trends
