The Sacramento Kings (6-4) visit the San Antonio Spurs (4-6) in the NBA this Monday, which is set to tip off at 8:00 p.m. from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. The game will broadcast on NBA League Pass.
The Kings are 1.5-point road favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Kings -1.5), with the over/under currently at 222.5 points. The Kings are -125 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, while San Antonio is +105 to pull off the slight upset.
Let's dive into my Kings vs. Spurs predictions and my NBA picks for Monday, November 11.
Kings vs. Spurs Picks, Predictions
Moneyline
Numbers lesson! The spread for this game is Kings -1.5 as the best available numbers on each side. The best available moneylines available in the market are Kings -117 and Spurs +105. In this case, neither are worth it vs playing a small spread. The move on-and-off of the -1 number is worth about 6 cents. Playing the Kings -1 (-110) offers 1 cent better value.
On the Spurs side, moving from +0.5 to +1.5 (essentially the alternate spread of a Spurs ML because there are no ties in the NBA), is worth about 12 cents, and yet, the ML is a 10 cent boost.
The Kings side is slightly more fair, but both are worth simply forgoing the insurance and playing the best available moneyline number. This concept can be applied to any game in which the prices are around 1.5.
Spread
If I were looking for a direction on the spread, I would play the Spurs +1.5. They are home underdogs, getting Devin Vassell back to playing more minutes, and catch Sacramento in a tough schedule spot.
The Kings are on the second leg of a back to back after an OT game in which they lost Malik Monk to injury. The market is still backing the Kings, so this is one I want to continue waiting on, possibly get Spurs +2.5, and then play a combination of Spurs ATS and Spurs ML.
Over/Under
My Spurs vs. Kings best bet is on the under at 222.5 total points scored. The Kings are on the second leg of a road back to back, after going to overtime against the Suns yesterday. They also lost Malik Monk to an ankle sprain in the game, a key part to the Sacramento bench scoring punch.
The Spurs play at an incredibly slow pace with Chris Paul operating as the lead point guard, and Wembanyama is simply the best defender I have ever watched. I expect a grind out game, and a strong under spot.
Pick: Under 222.5
Kings vs. Spurs Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 222.5 -110 / -110 | -125 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 222.5 -110 / -110 | +105 |
- Kings vs. Spurs Odds: Kings -1.5
- Kings vs. Spurs Over/Under: 222.5 points
- Kings vs. Spurs Moneyline: Kings -125, Spurs +105
Kings vs. Spurs Preview
The Spurs take on Kings on Monday night.
The Spurs are getting slightly healthier, returning a scoring punch to the lineup in Devin Vassell. They are still missing Tre Jones and Jeremy Sochan, while the Kings are likely going to be without Malik Monk.
Monk stepped on Mason Plumlee's foot in the Kings Sunday overtime win over the Suns, and he was immediately helped to the locker room.
Less than 24 hours later, I do not expect Monk to play. The situation of a second leg back to back road game for the Kings while missing their 6th-man makes me look towards the under and Spurs ATS.
Spurs price is worth waiting on for a better number, the under is worth picking up immediately.
Kings vs. Spurs Prediction
The under is emerging as the early sharp side. I would play this at any number above 222. We do not have official word as of this writing regarding the Monk injury, so confirmation should push this into the 221s or lower.
I wouldn't place a full unit on the under at 222.5, I would scale that back to 0.75 units. The value of the number matters, and so does the amount of line movement you can obtain.
When the number is weaker and movement is reduced, bet size should be scaled back appropriately too. I see some line movement towards the Kings ATS as well, but I want nothing to do with that side!
Best Bet: Under 222.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay: Spurs ML, Under 222.5 (+290)
Kings vs. Spurs Starting Lineups
Kings Starting Lineup
PG: De'Aaron Fox
SG: Kevin Huerter
SF: Demar Derozen
PF: Keegan Murray
C: Domantas Sabonis
Spurs Starting Lineup
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Devin Vassell
SF: Julian Champagnie
PF: Harrison Barnes
C: Victor Wembanyama
Kings vs. Spurs Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Monday, November 11 |
| Time: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NBA League Pass |
