The Sacramento Kings (33-31) will visit the Golden State Warriors (37-28) in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Warriors are 7.5-point favorites over the Kings on the spread (Warriors -7.5), with the over/under set at 234.5 total points. Golden State is a -285 favorite to win outright, while Sacramento is +230 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Kings vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, March 13.
Kings vs Warriors Prediction, Picks
Spread
The Kings offer some value here, catching as many as +7.5 points. This is a potential bounce-back spot following their 29-point loss to the Knicks in the second leg of a back-to-back.
Moneyline
While the moneyline won't be an official play, I could only look to the Kings if I had to pick. Sacramento is also in a revenge spot after losing 132-108 to the Warriors in late February. With the underlying numbers suggesting the Kings have been better than their 33-31 record, I see no reason to rule out an outright victory for the Kings.
Over/Under
If deciding on the total, I would lean to the under. Although my model predicts a number closer to 232.8 points, the projection doesn't offer enough of an edge to warrant a play.
My Pick: Kings +7.5
Kings vs Warriors Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- Kings vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -7.5
- Kings vs. Warriors over/under: 234.5 total points
- Kings vs. Warriors moneyline: Warriors -285, Kings +230
- Kings vs. Warriors best bet: Kings +7.5 (-115)
My Warriors vs. Kings best bet is on Sacramento to cover the spread at +7.5, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors NBA Preview
The Sacramento Kings have experienced quite an upheaval this season. In December, they fired Mike Brown as their head coach just six months after he signed a three-year extension.
Less than two months later, they traded their best player, De'Aaron Fox (PG), as part of a three-team deal in exchange for Zach LaVine (G), Sidy Cissoko (F), three first-round picks and three second-round picks. They then sent Cissoko and two second-round picks to Washington for center Jonas Valančiūnas.
On paper, this is still a strong Kings team that includes DeMar DeRozan (22.1 PPG), Domantas Sabonis (19.5 PPG), and Malik Monk (17.7 PPG). It's only taking a bit longer for them to get everyone on the same page.
Before the Fox trade, Sacramento was a .500 team at 24-24. Since then, they've been 9-7 in their last 16 games. Moreover, despite being 33-31 on the year, their Pythagorean expectation suggests their record should be closer to 35-31. Those numbers also align with their TeamRankings' luck factor of -1.9.
Sacramento has won six of the last 10 meetings in this series, and as the visiting team, it boasts a 3-0-1 mark against the spread. Therefore, the atmosphere of playing on the road in Chase Center might not trouble the Kings as much as other teams. The two sides are also familiar as members because they're in the same division.
Given those circumstances, this point spread feels a bit steep at +7.5. With my power ratings making Golden State closer to a 5.5-point favorite, we're getting about two points of value on the current number.
Kings vs Warriors Betting Predictions
After providing my reasoning for the Kings to cover the spread, I'll also look to build a same-game parlay by targeting one of the Warriors' player props.
Quinten Post has been a revelation for the Warriors since they selected him with the 52nd pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. The 7-footer from Boston College has contributed nicely, averaging 8.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game.
However, the Kings generally play with a smaller lineup, as the 6-foot-10 Sabonis often guards the opposing team's center. Therefore, Golden State will likely match Sacramento by playing a smaller lineup for most of the game. As a result, the Warriors might not necessarily need Post's size in this matchup.
When he does play, Post could find himself further away from the basket trying to defend the pick-and-roll on the perimeter. Post has a points + rebounds + assists prop of 17.5, but when facing opposing defenses ranked in the top 10 for rebounds allowed, he has stayed under this number in 10 of his last 13 games, including both meetings against the Kings.
Jonathan Kuminga could also be a factor for the Warriors now that he's available following a two-month absence. Kuminga was arguably the Warriors' second-best player behind Stephen Curry, and his return could signal fewer minutes for Post.
While Post might not garner much attention in the props market, this situational spot could prove valuable when targeting his under.
Best Bet: Kings +7.5 (-115)
Warriors vs Kings Parlay Picks
- Kings +7.5
- Quinten Post Under 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +222
Warriors vs. Kings Betting Trends
