Knicks vs. Celtics on Thursday night has an inefficient line with value.
The Action Network has developed a betting model that has gone 388-293-8 since 2005. That's a 57% win rate since "Let Me Love You" by Mario topped the charts. The algorithm's 11% return on investment is even better.
The model's parameters factor in public action, line movement and more to pick which games to target.
If you had bet $500 on each game that has fit the betting trend since 2005, you'd be up about $38,500. That's roughly $2,500 per year.
And this is across a substantial sample size: 700 or so games over the past 17 seasons.
We don't recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is much less forgiving in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to profits over a long time horizon.
Knicks vs. Celtics Inefficient Line Prediction
The betting system for Knicks vs. Celtics targets the under in division games when sharp action has moved the total downward.
In other words, the under has lost value because sharps have been betting it in droves.
The last parameter requires the number of bets to be 40% or less on the under. That indicates you're fading the public, which typically ride with overs because they're more fun to root for.
All signs point toward the under at a market-best price of PointsBet u221.5 (-110).
Do keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 40 NBA games per year. This might be an opportunity to cash in, but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.
The best way to make money through this algorithm is to bet on every game that fits these parameters for the rest of the year.
We'll continue to write about them.
PRO Picks: Under 221.5 (-110) or better
