The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics will face off in Game 1 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Celtics are 9-point favorites over the Knicks on the spread (Celtics -9), with the over/under set at 212.5 total points. Boston is a -450 favorite to win outright, while New York is +333 to pull off the upset.
The Celtics are the defending champs, hitting their stride with the postseason in effect, but also battling some injuries. The Knicks are tired from being coached by Tom Thibodeau and a grueling first round series.
Can New York overcome its identity as a team that can’t hang with the heavyweights? Or will Boston continue its domination of its East Coast rival? Let's get into my Knicks vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Monday, May 5.
Knicks vs. Celtics Picks, Prediction for NBA Playoffs Game 1
My Celtics vs. Knicks Game 1 best bet is on the Under at 212.5 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 212.5 (-110)
Knicks vs. Celtics Odds for Monday, May 5
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | +333 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 212.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Knicks vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -9
- Knicks vs. Celtics over/under: 212.5 total points
- Knicks vs. Celtics moneyline: Knicks +333, Celtics -450
- Knicks vs. Celtics best bet: Under 212.5 (-110)
Knicks vs. Celtics Game 1 Preview
Let’s start here by saying none of the news is good for Knicks' backers.
- Since Joe Mazzulla took over, the Celtics are 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS against the Knicks.
- Under Mazzulla, the Celtics are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in Game 1s.
- As more than a 1-possession favorite, Boston is 26-11 SU and 19-17-1 ATS.
- The Knicks were 6-16 SU with a -3.8 spread differential (24th in NBA) against teams with a top-10 point differential (Boston was 3rd).
The reality is that the Knicks have not shown the ability to hang with elite teams this season. Even their series against the Pistons being pushed to six games shows that they are just not a team that can dominate the way they need to.
So am I betting the spread?
I am not, sadly. I think there’s a decent chance the Celtics win this game by 20-plus points. But my model makes this game Celtics -7.6. That’s after a postseason bump to Boston’s power rating out of respect.
The market is so far ahead of Boston that I can’t bet it. It would have to be Knicks on the spread or nothing. However, typically, teams that cover as underdogs win in the playoffs (68% of the time straight up since 2003, 70% of the time in the last 10 seasons).
Do I think the Knicks are winning Game 1? I do not.
Another strong case for the Knicks to cover the spread is that Boston is just 10-6 SU, and 7-8-1 ATS (47%) under Mazzulla at home in the playoffs after Round 1.
The market overestimates Boston’s homecourt advantage for some reason. This is especially tricky this season, considering Boston was 20-24 ATS at home.
If you asked me with a squirt gun to my head who I’m taking on the spread, I’d say Knicks. But I’m not a brave enough person to do so. Good luck to you if you are.
Knicks vs. Celtics Betting Predictions for Game 1
Under 212.5 (-110)
This number opened preposterously high, and we bet the Under immediately at 217 on our live show. Now, it's settled in at 212.5.
I still show value all the way down to 209.5, so I will recommend it, but I want to stress that my position was at 217.5, and I don’t have a ton of interest at the current price.
The Celtics may put up 130 on their own and bust this game wide open. The weakest unit on the floor is the Knicks’ defense by a wide margin. I have more questions about Boston’s defense than I do about the Knicks’ offense, which is another reason to lean Over.
But Boston’s playoff defense is another level above, and the Knicks’ offense stagnated against a Pistons defense that was scrappy, but young and undisciplined, with various matchup issues. The Celtics have no such problems.
Knicks-Celtics games went Over in 3-of-4 this season because Boston’s offense cooked.
If you like the Over, lean towards Celtics team total Over. Again, I like Knicks on the spread, but lean with the Celtics to go Over their team total and the Knicks to stay Under their team total, which would inherently mean a Celtics cover.
Have I mentioned I don’t want to take a side and this market is tough?
The Celtics will face difficulties getting out in transition after facing such a bad offense in Orlando. And while this will be a breath of fresh air from Orlando’s defense, the Knicks do have good wings to slow down the Jays, even if they’re going to get bombed from 3-point range.
Derrick White Over 14.5 Points (-125) / Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made
The Knicks are going to need to send help to Jalen Brunson in switches, and more help in situations where the Celtics put Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns into pick-and-roll actions.
That puts them in rotation and will result in open three-point attempts for Derrick White.
White shot 54.8% from long-range against the Knicks this year, making 4.8 per game.
So, this number is below what he averaged against New York during the regular season, in fewer minutes than the amount he is playing now.
Knicks vs. Celtics Game 1 Best Bets
- Under 212.5 (-110)
- Derrick White Over 14.5 Points (-125)
- Derrick White Over 3.5 Three-Pointers-Made (+140)
Celtics vs. Knicks Betting Trends
