The New York Knicks (39-20) will visit the Miami Heat (28-30) in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 6 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Knicks are 6.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Knicks -6.5), with the over/under set at 220.5 total points. New York is a -270 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Knicks vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 2.
Knicks vs Heat Prediction
Spread
Miami has looked much better in recent games, posting back-to-back victories over the Hawks and the Pacers. However, it's still 3-5 since trading Jimmy Butler as part of a five-team deal that brought Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson and Davion Mitchell to the Heat.
While my power ratings suggest Miami is closer to a four-point underdog, its inconsistency this season is enough to keep me off the game.
Moneyline
Neither side gets my vote for a moneyline play. Based on my projection, the Knicks should be closer to a -180 favorite, and while Miami does offer value at 2-to-1, I remain skeptical of its chances to win the game outright.
Over/Under
The total does pique my interest despite the market betting the number down from 225.5 to 220.5. Miami's offense has evolved from what we saw last season, as there's a greater likelihood we find the Heat involved in more high-scoring games.
My Pick: Over 220.5
Knicks vs Heat Odds, Lines, Picks
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 220.5 -110 / -110 | -270 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 220.5 -110 / -110 | +220 |
- Knicks vs. Heat spread: Knicks -6.5
- Knicks vs. Heat over/under: 220.5 total points
- Knicks vs. Heat moneyline: Knicks -270, Heat +220
- Knicks vs. Heat best bet: Over 220.5 (-110)
My Heat vs. Knicks best bet is on the Over at 220.5 total points, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
New York Knicks vs Miami Heat NBA Sunday Preview
The move to the under could be linked to Miami's injury report which lists Wiggins (17.6 PPG) as doubtful on Sunday night. However, Wiggins sat out Friday's game against the Pacers, and Miami still won and put up 125 points.
We've grown accustomed to viewing this Miami team as somewhat offensively challenged in recent years. They play at almost a snail's pace, looking to limit the number of possessions in a game. That philosophy still exists with the Heat this season, considering it ranks 28th in pace with 97.15 possessions per game.
However, we're now seeing Miami conform more to league standards by becoming increasingly aggressive from beyond the arc. The Heat rank 11th in 3-point attempts (38.6), up from 18th (33.7) a season ago. Those increases in attempts have also resulted in 1.5 more 3-point field goals per game (12.5 to 14.0).
Miami is also the 11th-most profitable team for over bettors with a 32-26 (55.2%) mark. Last season, it ranked 28th in the same category at 38-51 (42.7%). As much as we'd like to recall those famous defensive battles in the '90s between the Knicks and Heat, the total is 7-3 to the over in their last 10 meetings.
Miami should have success getting shots up from the perimeter against a Knicks defense with the worst 3-point percentage (37.7%) allowed to opposing teams. My model projects the total should be closer to 224, giving me a decent enough edge to sanction a play on the over.
Knicks vs Heat Best Bets
For my same-game parlay, I'll look to target players on both teams after uncovering some intriguing trends that could prove favorable.
Although the overall numbers suggest that Miami is one of the better defensive teams, ranking 12th in efficiency with a 111.9 rating, it can struggle with its rim protection. Miami ranks 26th in field goal percentage (64.8%) when its opponent is within six feet of the basket.
At 6-foot-9, Miami's Bam Adebayo is an undersized center and he has failed to register a block in four of his last five games. Adebayo also hasn't had a block in his recent four meetings against the Knicks. With Bet365 listing his blocks prop at 0.5, we're getting decent value on the under at +120 odds.
Adebayo's backup Kel'el Ware has also struggled to be a defensive impediment inside the paint. Ware has a steals + blocks prop of 2.5, but has failed to clear this number in 13 straight games.
In fairness, with the Indiana product only averaging 20 minutes per game, it's difficult to have a more significant impact while playing limited minutes. Although his under is juiced to -190, it's a nice option to help build out our parlay.
Lastly, I'll back New York's Mikal Bridges to surpass his points + rebounds prop of 17.5. Bridges exceeded this projection in nine of his last 11 games and the previous five meetings against Miami. Using Bridges as our final leg would help boost our parlay odds to +425.
Knicks vs. Heat Best Bet
- Over 220.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Bam Adebayo Under 0.5 Blocks
- Kel'el Ware Under 2.5 Steals + Blocks
- Mikal Bridges Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +425 — bet365
Heat vs. Knicks Betting Trends
