Knicks vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Jan. 11
Here's everything you need to know about Knicks vs. Mavericks on Thursday, Jan. 11 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Knicks will put their five-game winning streak on the line when they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. New York hasn't lost since the Jan. 1 arrivals of OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn via trade with the Raptors.
As the lone starter to join New York, Anunoby is clearly the centerpiece of the Knicks' haul. His ability to guard multiple positions on the floor makes the Knicks instantly better defensively.
For example, per NBA.com, New York leads the league with a defensive rating value of 100.2 since Anunoby's debut.
And it's not like the Knicks haven't faced any worthy opponents during this recent winning streak. They defeated the Timberwolves, who sit atop the Western Conference, 112-106, and blew out (128-92) a 76ers team on the road that's currently the third seed in the Eastern Conference.
Thursday's matchup involves another quality opponent in a Mavericks team six games above .500 at 22-16. However, due to an ankle injury, Dallas will be without its best player, Luka Doncic.
As a result, we've seen the line flip from New York as a 1.5-point underdog to as high as a 4.5-point favorite.
In this preview, I'll share my plan to navigate this line move while still extracting value.
Let's get to our Knicks vs. Mavericks prediction and pick.
Knicks vs. Mavericks Prediction
Pick: Knicks ML / Jalen Brunson o10.5 Rebounds + Assists (+155 SGP)
Knicks Betting Outlook
There's been a bit of addition by subtraction with the Knicks, given that they parted with two quality players, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, to complete the trade. Barrett averages 18.9 points this season compared to 15.7 points for Quickley.
However, the Knicks had reservations about Barrett's ceiling and could not come to terms on a contract extension with Quickley, who is in the final year of his rookie deal.
Thus, the decision to jettison both players remains in step with the organization's goals.
Nonetheless, if you analyze this team on the court, it's easy to see why the Knicks have been able to find another gear following the trade.
For one, the Knicks already had two ball-dominant players, Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. Barrett was simply surplus to requirements.
New York needed more fluidity and movement without the ball, which Anunoby provides. It's no surprise that New York is also sharing the ball more since the trade, as it's averaging 2.4 more assists per game compared to its season average of 24.
While these details might appear minor in theory, the reality is that Anunoby's brought instant success to the Knicks by helping to improve their floor spacing.
Mavericks Betting Outlook
After jumping out to a 9-3 start, the Mavericks have played .500 ball and are currently the seventh seed in the Western Conference. In fairness, Dallas hasn't been at full strength, with Kyrie Irving missing 16 games due to various injuries.
However, the Mavericks managed to go 9-7 in those games.
Irving's most recent injury was a bruised right heel, which sidelined him for 12 straight games. Since his return, Dallas went 3-2, with Doncic missing one game against Portland during that stretch.
It's worth noting that both setbacks were double-digit losses to the Jazz and Grizzlies, who are both sub-.500 teams.
As for the Knicks, they're seven games above .500 and steadily climbing up my power rankings.
While there's no disputing the overall quality of Doncic's game, the Mavericks will undoubtedly miss his rebounding. Per TeamRankings, the Knicks rank third in the league in rebounding, while the Mavericks rank 24th.
New York's rebounding is a big reason why it leads the league in second-chance points with 17.1 per game. Thus, not having Doncic available for this matchup hampers the Mavericks' chances of winning this game.
Knicks vs. Mavericks Picks, Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 233.5 -110o / -110u | -174 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 233.5 -110o / -110u | +146 |
If you missed grabbing the Knicks as +1.5 underdogs, you're probably not too thrilled to now lay -4.5 points as a road favorite. Even if you wanted back New York straight-up on the moneyline, you'd have to swallow some juice with odds as high as -180.
Instead, you can consider a bet365 same-game parlay that combines New York on the moneyline (-165) with Brunson recording over 10.5 rebounds and assists (-140).
Brunson averages 3.9 rebounds per game, and I like his chances of going over that mark with Doncic sidelined. We also spoke about the Knicks' improved floor spacing and how they've been able to generate more assists.
Opposing point guards are averaging 9.26 assists per game vs. Dallas, putting the Mavericks in the bottom-third of the league in this category.
This same-game parlay has odds at +155 and gives us a chance for a better return on our investment.
Pick: Same-game parlay (+155): Knicks ML (-165) / Jalen Brunson Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-140)
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