The Knicks-Pacers series lines opened with New York around -200 to win. It seems everyone hammered the Knicks, as they are now between -240 and -300, depending on the book. ESPN asked 11 analysts to pick who they thought would win the series, and all 11 went with the Knicks.
I’m always suspicious when the consensus is this strongly for one team (see Boston-Miami last year). The Knicks were the better team during the regular season, but are missing two key rotation players, while the Pacers are only missing Bennedict Mathurin. The difference in team quality would suggest this series should be closer to a toss-up given injuries. So, why is everyone backing New York?
Rebounding
The Knicks are the best rebounding team in the NBA, especially on the offensive glass. The Pacers are a notoriously poor rebounding team, which wasn’t exploited in the first round because the Bucks don’t have great rebounding personnel without Giannis Antetokounmpo. In Round 1, the Knicks rebounded 35% of their own shots. In two of three games vs. the Pacers this season, that number was 40%, and the third had Taj Gibson starting at center.
The Pacers' Defense
The Pacers dealt for Pascal Siakam in large part to bolster their defense — and during the regular season, it helped some. But not against the Bucks.
This season, when the Bucks did not have Damian Lillard or Antetokounmpo on the floor, their offensive rating was at 110 (around the quality of Charlotte, the fourth-worst offense in the NBA). In the playoffs, that rose to 122 (around the quality of the Pacers' offense, second best in the NBA).
The Knicks' offense is way better. Brunson is a better creator, and the shooting is better. The Pacers won’t be able to slow them down.
The Knicks' Defense
The Pacers' offense is able to generate a ton of 3s and get to the rim at will. The Knicks, though, will have great rim protection on the floor at all times, and great secondary and tertiary rim protection. They have a lot of players who force turnovers, and a lot of different options to throw at them. They adapted throughout the series against the 76ers, going to different options on Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid. Tom Thibodeau is a great defensive coach, and I expect he will find counters.
After reviewing all this, I do think the Pacers are mostly drawing dead here. There just doesn’t seem to be a way they can score enough or slow down New York to win four games, especially without home court.
The best bet is Knicks -1.5 for the series. It’s the safest, as it covers a lot of options. I think the Knicks win in 4-6 games, and this covers the tail end. Brandon Anderson covered how Thibodeau has never swept a team out of the playoffs, and he bet Knicks in five or six at +130 composite. While Thibodeau never has, this series probably provides his best opportunity: This Knicks team is the best team he has coached since the 2011 Bulls (at minimum), and he is a better coach now.
I'm betting.6u on Knicks -1.5 series spread at -109 on BetRivers. I'd bet this down to -140 (at .5u if odds are -125 or worse).
I also think the Pacers are going to be shocked by the Knicks in Game 1. This series is so different than their last, and the Knicks are more physical and better conditioned. I don't really think the Pacers are prepared. I'm putting another.25u on Knicks Game 1/series at -140 on DraftKings. I'd bet this down to -155 — otherwise I would prefer adding more on the spread.
Player Props
If it’s a shorter series, that means there could be greater variability in some of the props and series parlays as well. These are the two series parlays I'm betting on FanDuel:
Jalen Brunson 25+ points every game, +170, .25u (bet down to +150)
Donte DiVincenzo 12+ points every game, +260, .25u (bet down to +230)
Both these guys killed the Pacers during the regular season. DiVincenzo will have a bigger role here with less offensive weapons on the other side, and they have no answers for Brunson, who has to carry the whole offense.
Jalen Brunson most points, -500, BetMGM, 5u
These odds are crazy. The best odds elsewhere I saw are -4000, which means this is 12% EV to that. I wouldn’t bet this lower than -600.
Brunson is going to be carrying the offensive burden on every possession. He is the leader of the team, and the Pacers' defense has no real answers to slow him down. This is basically a bet on if he is healthy, and given his stellar playoff record, I'd say yes.
Isaiah Hartenstein most total rebounds +1900, .2u, FanDuel
Josh Hart is such a crazy favorite here, and after his performance last series, that makes sense. But last series was almost an outlier for Hart career-wise, who is a great rebounder but not "best rebounding playoff player ever."
Hartenstein is the Knicks' best center. Last round, Embiid pummeled the centers, repeatedly forcing foul trouble and also tiring them out. This led to more substitutions. It also meant Mitchell Robinson was more crucial, because he had better heft to deal with Embiid.
This round is different. Hartenstein could play a lot more minutes, and he killed the Pacers on the boards during the regular season. This is a worthy sprinkle at the minimum.
