The New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons will meet in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Action Network NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson isn’t betting the Pistons because he thinks they’re clearly better than the Knicks—he’s betting them because the books are acting like they’re not even in the same weight class. His view? This series is tight, gritty, and going long. That makes Detroit live, especially at the prices being offered. Enter the "Pistons Escalator."
Continue below for Brandon's Knicks vs. Pistons predictions, picks, and odds for the opening round of the NBA playoffs.
Knicks vs. Pistons First Round Series Betting Odds
- Series Winner: Knicks -390, Pistons +300
- Series Spread: Knicks -1.5 games (-165), Timberwolves +1.5 games (+135)
Knicks vs. Pistons NBA Playoffs Predictions, Picks, Odds
The Pistons Escalator
Brandon’s three-pronged bet starts with the series going deep:
“The base of the escalator is the long series… Over five and a half games, it’s -120 at ESPN. So we get at least six. I am taking that.”
That aligns with the series spread: “Detroit +2.5 is only -138. That tells you oddsmakers expect the Pistons to at least hang.”
The big swing is taking Pistons to win the series outright:
“Just Pistons series +360. That’s implied 22%. I said +140 before I ever saw this number. That’s 42%—we’re getting double the price here.”
“If you just want one part out of this from me, just that bet is the one.”
Why the Pistons Have Become a Real Team
Since January 1, Detroit has transformed into a defense-first monster:
“30–19 since January 1. Fourteenth ranked offense, number three defense. They are sixth in net rating since then.”
“In 2024 they were 26th in EFG defense. Since Jan. 1? They are number two. Holy cow, is that a leap.”
The growth isn’t random—it’s development:
“Jalen Duren during the stretch: 13 and 11 on 71% true shooting. 138 offensive rating, 107 defensive. His BPM went from basically zero to five.”
“Ausar Thompson… almost 60% true shooting now. He’s almost as good of a defender as Amen is now. He’s been really good.”
Matchup Grit, Not Flash
Brandon doesn’t think this is about who’s prettier—it’s about who can punch longer:
“Buckle up, this brawl’s going long and up for grabs.”
“Thibs has been upset by a lower seed six of nine times. Five of those were by five seeds or worse.”
He trusts Detroit to outlast a maxed-out Knicks rotation:
“We got a young, hungry Pistons squad with young legs… The Pistons want to score in transition. Pistons get moving. I really like that for Detroit the longer this goes.”
“Who do I like late in the series? The answer should be the veteran home team. But that’s not what the answer has been in this series.”
Why Brandon Doesn’t Buy the Knicks' Offense
New York’s offense fell off a cliff after January:
“Through Jan. 31, 32–16, number two offense, number four net rating. Since Feb. 1: 18–15, number 19 offense, number 19 net rating.”
“That’s not just Jalen Brunson being out. He played the first 14 games of that stretch. They were 8–6 with a -5.1 net rating when he played.”
Even with Brunson back, the weapons around him aren’t clicking:
“KAT’s offensive rating is plummeted down 11 points… Josh Hart’s twos are down 10%, threes are down 5%… He’s just back to being Josh Hart.”
Cade vs. Brunson is Close Enough
Brandon isn’t claiming Cade Cunningham is better—just that the margin’s thin right now:
“If I’m wrong about the Knicks and the Pistons just can’t score, Cade can’t stay on the court… That works out for Brunson.”
“But I don’t know if I believe Brunson is healthy… Cade’s the bigger guy, the healthier guy, probably playing better this season.”
So who wins? Whoever’s hot—and maybe whoever leads at halftime:
“The Pistons are 32–7 if they lead at half, 9–30 if trailing. Knicks are +6.2 net rating first half. Even better—almost +10 at home.”
Brandon’s Pistons Escalator
✅ Over 5.5 Games (-120)
✅ Pistons to Win Series (+360)
✅ Pistons in 6 (+1100 at BetMGM—"bad price," in a good way)
Brandon's Knicks vs. Pistons Series Prop
Jalen Brunson to lead the series in assists (+260)
“Felt high to me… Cade and Brunson were basically even across four games. I like it as a Knicks hedge.”
