Knicks vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks for Wednesday, Dec. 27
Here's everything you need to know about Knicks vs. Thunder on Wednesday, Dec. 27 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
New York's 129-122 win over the Bucks on Christmas Day snapped a string of nine straight head-to-head losses against Milwaukee. However, a closer look reveals the spot couldn't have been any better for the Knicks in front of a boisterous afternoon crowd at Madison Square Garden.
There was also a scheduling and revenge spot in play here, with New York facing Milwaukee at home for a second time in as many games following a 130-111 loss. The Knicks dominated inside the paint while shooting 54.3% from the floor. Can New York now find that same success when it hits the road for a three-game road trip?
Let's get to our Knicks vs. Thunder prediction and pick.
Knicks vs. Thunder Prediction
Pick: Thunder -2.5
Knicks Betting Outlook
Although the Knicks were due for a win against the Bucks, they needed an almost perfect scenario to pull it off. In addition to losing nine straight against the Bucks before Monday's win, New York was just 1-7-1 against the spread (ATS) during those games. As a result, I think it's fair to say the two teams were somewhat miles apart, even from a handicapping perspective.
Interestingly, those losses spanned two years, with the Knicks reaching the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. Thus, New York has shown to be one of the better teams in the league. The question is whether it can take that next step when facing the top teams.
In recent memory, Oklahoma City hasn't been a top team in the league, but it's managed to give New York fits in this series. The Thunder has won seven of the past 10 meetings outright and ATS. While you could expect New York to struggle against Milwaukee given its status as a top-tier team, I'm not sure you'd expect the same struggles against OKC.
One thing that stood out to me is that eight of those 10 games went over the total. New York ranks 27th in Pace, averaging 100.8 possessions, according to TeamRankings. With the Thunder are more likely to dictate the tempo on its home floor, it's worth wondering if the pace will be too fast for New York's liking.
Thunder Betting Outlook
After years of stockpiling draft picks, the Thunder finally assembled a playoff-contending team that's probably a few years ahead of schedule. At 19-9, Oklahoma City sits third in the Western Conference. But what's most impressive is that the Thunder has the second-youngest team in the league, with an average age of 23.8 years. However, I can't say that I'm too surprised about Oklahoma City's success. After all, there have been signs along the way.
Over the past six seasons, OKC has been the most profitable team for NBA spread bettors. According to our Action Labs database, the Thunder is 230-181-7 during that span for 34.34 units. While bookmakers have somewhat undervalued the Thunder, I'm unsure how this team continues to fly under the radar. They are one of three teams in the top 10 for offensive and defensive efficiency. Interestingly, the Thunder ranked 16th in both categories last season. Hence, this team has improved dramatically on both sides of the floor.
Although the Thunder don't profile as one of the bigger teams in the league, they're very effective in defending the paint. Rookie center Chet Holmgren ranks fourth overall with 2.7 blocks per game. New York ranks 23rd in field goal percentage, shooting 46.4% from the floor, while the Thunder ranks second in limiting opponents to shooting 44.5%.
Based on those numbers, I'd say we're more likely to see this Knicks team regress to the mean after such an impressive shooting display against the Bucks.
Knicks vs. Thunder Picks, Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -113 | 239.5 -112o / -109u | +125 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -108 | 239.5 -112o / -109u | -148 |
In addition to struggling against the Bucks in recent meetings, New York has also struggled against the league's top teams this season. When facing teams with a winning percentage of .550 or better, the Knicks are just 4-9 ATS, and they've yet to cover consecutive games in this spot.
Moreover, when facing a team with a winning percentage of .650 or better, New York is just 1-7 ATS.
The Knicks put forth a max effort to end their skid against the Bucks. I'm not sure they have enough in the tank for another game against a quality opponent.
It's worth noting that road underdogs are on a 0-5 ATS run when coming off a win against Milwaukee. I don't think that's a coincidence, given the effort required to beat this Bucks team.
After running the numbers, my model has the Thunder undervalued by the market yet again as I have Oklahoma City closer to a six-point favorite.
Thus, I'll comfortably lay the 2.5 points at BetMGM and side with the home team.
