The New York Knicks (42-23) and Golden State Warriors (38-28) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Warriors are 7-point favorites over the Knicks on the spread (Warriors -7), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. Golden State is a -278 favorite to win outright, while New York is +225 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Knicks vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, March 15.
Knicks vs. Warriors Picks, Prediction
Spread
This is a tricky spot with New York point guard Jalen Brunson set to miss his fourth straight game with an ankle injury. I would've expected the Knicks to be closer to 8-point underdogs, yet the line has moved in their favor at some books, down to +6.5 after opening at +7.
Moneyline
The Warriors should have enough juice to win this game, and their moneyline odds of -278 at BetRivers make them an intriguing option for consideration in any same game parlay.
Over/Under
The Under piques my interest, as the Knicks will be without their floor general. New York has stayed Under the total in three of the four games Brunson didn't feature in this season.
My Pick: Under 228.5
Knicks vs. Warriors Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 228.5 -110 / -110 | +225 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 228.5 -110 / -110 | -278 |
- Knicks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -7
- Knicks vs. Warriors over/under: 228.5 total points
- Knicks vs. Warriors moneyline: Warriors -278, Knicks +225
- Knicks vs. Warriors best bet: Under 228.5 (-110)
My Warriors vs. Knicks best bet is on the Under at 228.5 total points, with the best line currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Knicks vs. Warriors Preview
The biggest challenge for the Knicks is they don't have a player remotely close to being a like-for-like replacement for Brunson. Miles McBride is likely to step in, but when called into action during this recent stretch, the West Virginia product posted a negative plus-minus in two of three games Brunson sat out.
Without Brunson, the Knicks' pick-and-roll offense takes a massive hit. New York would also face the challenge of other players like McBride and Josh Hart having to handle more of the ball.
This season, the Knicks are committing the fourth-fewest turnovers, averaging 13.3 per game. We've seen that number increase to 14.75 with Brunson sidelined. It's worth noting that the Warriors have one of the best defenses in forcing turnovers, ranking seventh with 15.3.
Not having Brunson means the Knicks will have less of a backcourt threat. Golden State's Stephen Curry can sometimes struggle having to chase around opposing point guards of Brunson's quality. Instead, the Warriors can focus more on slowing down New York's biggest frontcourt threat in Karl-Anthony Towns.
Anytime you make your opponent more one-dimensional, you'll have a decent chance of controlling the game. When the two teams last met, Golden State limited the Knicks to eight 3-point field goals on 33 attempts.
Although New York began the season shooting a ton of 3-pointers, we've seen that number tail off precipitously. The Knicks now rank 22nd in 3-point field goals (12.7) and 27th in attempts (34.3) after finishing 10th and 13th in those categories during the previous campaign.
Moreover, New York plays at the sixth-slowest pace (98.06 possessions) and it wouldn't surprise me if some indecisive moments plague the offense on Saturday night.
Knicks vs. Warriors Prediction
As I provided my reasoning for the Under, I grew even more encouraged with the chances of the Warriors coming away with a victory. Thus, including both outcomes in our same game parlay makes perfect sense. However, we're not quite done yet, as I've identified a player prop that could improve our parlay odds up to +335.
Golden State forward Gui Santos has had an uptick in playing time, averaging 18.8 minutes over his last seven games. Although his season-average is only 13.8 minutes, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has never shied away from playing with a deep rotation on his bench.
Santos has an assists prop of 1.5—a projection he cleared in six of his last seven games. His median for this prop line is two assists, which indicates his consistency in clearing this number.
The Warriors are known for their ability to spread the ball and move without it. You can't play in this offense if you can't find the open man and Santos has clearly impressed Kerr enough to earn more minutes.
Given their ball movement, look for the Warriors to find themselves in some promising areas on the court with Santos on the giving end of dishing out a few dimes.
Best Bet: Under 228.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Warriors Moneyline
- Gui Santos Over 1.5 Assists
- Under 228.5
Parlay Payout: +335
Warriors vs. Knicks Betting Trends
