| Prop | Aaron Gordon 1+ 3-pointer (-120) |
| Spread | Nuggets -6 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 p.m. ET |ESPN |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Because there are so few NBA games at this point, lines in the prop market are very sharp, especially for star players. That’s why I try to target spots for role players, although Aaron Gordon is a bit more than a role player for the Nuggets.
After going 0-for-3 from 3-point land in Game 1, I project Gordon gets at least one in Game 2. Entering Game 1 of this series against the Lakers, Gordon was shooting 43% from 3-point range in home playoff games. He has hit at least one 3 in four of six home playoff games. Also, he hit one in three of the Nuggets’ four regular-season games against Los Angeles.
The odds for this prop were as high as -145 before Game 1. In that Denver win, we saw Anthony Davis leaving Gordon in the paint so he could focus on protecting the rim. The Nuggets will likely adjust and have Gordon float around the perimeter to keep Davis away from the basket.
In terms of how the Lakers will go about defending Nikola Jokic, it appears Rui Hachimura is going to be the primary matchup. With that alignment, having Gordon float around the rim was not successful. Spacing will be important.
Back to the bounce-back angle: In 32 career playoff games, Gordon has hit at least one 3-pointer 19 times. He has only gone back-to-back playoff games without a 3 twice, these past two games and back in 2021 when Denver lost to the Suns.
Lakers vs.
Nuggets
| Prop | Dennis Schroder To Score 10+ Points (+120) |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Another bounce-back candidate.
Schroder finished Game 1 with only six points, but he easily could have had 10 or more. He led the Lakers with nine drives to the basket in Game 1. Instead of going for his shot, though, he got into the paint and dished out five assists, two of which went to Anthony Davis.
I project Schroder to look for his shot more in Game 2. Lakers coach Darvin Ham has a short leash for D’Angelo Russell, who didn’t play in the fourth quarter of Game 1. Also, Lakers guards only had 20 points in Game 1, which isn’t a recipe for success.
If Schroder starts again, this line will likely move. If he doesn’t, I still trust he’ll be getting crunch-time minutes over Russell or Lonnie Walker.
Pick: Dennis Schroder To Score 10+ Points (+120) |
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