The Los Angeles Lakers (40-24) and Denver Nuggets (42-24) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Nuggets are 14-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread (Nuggets -14), with the over/under set at 229.5 total points. Denver is a -900 favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is +600 to pull off the upset.
The Lakers are a Dribbling ER Unit. The Nuggets are exhausted and frustrated after getting smacked by the Wolves. There’s a good chance both teams sit most of their key players for this marquee matchup. Get excited for March basketball in the NBA!
But there’s always value to find. So, let's get into my Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Friday, March 14.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Picks, Prediction
Spread
Under no circumstances should you bet this spread.
Moneyline
Denver is almost definitely going to win this game unless they are resting Nikola Jokic, which they might, so they are not definitely going to win this game.
Over/Under
With Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura out, it’s an Over.
My Pick: Over 228.5
Lakers vs. Nuggets Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 229.5 -110 / -110 | +600 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 229.5 -110 / -110 | -900 |
- Lakers vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -14
- Lakers vs. Nuggets over/under: 229.5 total points
- Lakers vs. Nuggets moneyline: Nuggets -900, Lakers +600
- Lakers vs. Nuggets best bet: Over 228.5 (-120)
My Nuggets vs. Lakers best bet is on the Over at 228.5 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Preview
Here’s the deal. The Lakers are coming back from an East Coast road trip on a back-to-back in altitude. This is, I’m not kidding, the worst spot you can have travel-wise in the NBA. Milwaukee to Denver isn’t the longest flight you can have, but playing Giannis and the Bucks, followed by Jokic and the Nuggets, in altitude, on no rest, is a recipe for a beatdown.
Teams in Denver after playing in the central timezone the night before are 16-23-2 (40%) ATS since 2003.
There’s zero reason for the Lakers to put anything into this game. LeBron James is out with a groin injury. Luka Doncic is banged up and on the second night of a back-to-back. The Lakers’ chances of winning this game are simply not worth the effort in putting out their guys and not resting them.
This is the game you chalk up to a schedule loss and move along.
OK, so just bet the Nuggets, right?
This line is 14 (after moving from -14.5 and looks to be headed towards 13.5). There is no universe in which you can take the power ratings of these two teams, subtract whatever value you assign Lebron and Luka and the role players and even after that get to this number.
Especially when we look at Denver’s side. Michael Malone after the Wolves game outright said that the Nuggets have to find rest spots for their starters the rest of the way. The team is banged up and tired. That’s not opinion or projection, I was in the locker room, I spoke with the players. Everyone at this time of year is like this but Denver, after an East Coast road trip themselves last week culminating in a tough and emotional two-game set vs. OKC on Sunday-Monday, are worn out.
On the injury report, the Nuggets have listed every starter except Michael Porter Jr as probable or questionable. (Aaron Gordon has actually been upgraded with his calf strain.)
The most likely move is that Denver plays everyone in this game, beats the snot out of a resting Lakers team, and then sits players on the back to back vs. the Wizards. But they might try and divy it up between the two games. And if they do, then this line is inherently wrong.
Denver is 8-1 as a double-digit favorite this season but only 5-4 ATS. They are not a team that absolutely destroys bad teams, as the Lakers are if they’re resting players.
And what if, for some reason, the Lakers swerve and Luka Doncic plays alongside some returning players from injury? Then this number crashes by six points or more.
One more thing: the Lakers have incentive not to show cards vs. Denver again. Tiebreaker matters; it’s 1-1 with two to play. But the Lakers can still win tiebreaker by winning the last matchup between these teams in LA and then winning their division. With Denver losing the division to the Thunder (magic number of five for OKC for the one-seed) then the Lakers can get tiebreaker just by finishing ahead of Golden State/the Clippers and beating Denver in the final matchup.
On the flip side, after showing a blueprint for how to beat Denver by fronting Nikola Jokic and showing a very detailed opponent-specific scheme in their last matchup, the Lakers don’t want to give the Nuggets any more tape on it. You tested your scheme against them, got the win, and now you can wait for the playoffs. The Lakers benefit by not giving the Nuggets any more tape on what they’ll see in a potential playoff series.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction
OK, so this game should be messy. So what should we bet?
Jokic is going to play, most likely. He doesn’t like to sit out, and convincing him to do so will be difficult. Also, a Friday game vs. the Lakers is a big draw for the home team. If Doncic plays, and the props market thinks he will, then Luka is playing against his good friend.
Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura were sent back to LA to continue rehab. The over when Hachimura doesn’t play is 8-6. When Hayes and Hachimura don’t play, it’s 5-2 and the opponent has gone over in five of the seven games.
So we’re going to keep this simple.
Over 228.5 and a Same Game Parlay with Jokic and the Nuggets’ team total over. Here is the parlay: Jokic triple-double, Nuggets team total over 121.5, Jokic 25+ points.
That parlay comes out to +252 at DraftKings. We might get the Jokic props before the fourth quarter.
I think the spread is a touch much, so I don’t mind throwing in Lakers +14 and Nuggets Moneyline, which boosts the parlay to +950 at DraftKings, but that is, of course, not a serious bet and should only be played for funsies.
Best Bet: Over 228.5 (-120)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Over 228.5
- Nuggets Team Total Over 121.5
- Nikola Jokic 25+ Points
Parlay Payout: +252
Nuggets vs. Lakers Betting Trends
