The Los Angeles Lakers (33-21) and Denver Nuggets (37-19) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread (Nuggets -6.5), with the over/under set at 243.5 total points. Denver is a -250 favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is +205 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, February 22.
Lakers vs Nuggets Prediction
Spread
I see no benefit for either side, as my model projection of -6.5 aligns with the current market number at -7.
Moneyline
The moneyline does offer some value, as my projection suggests the Nuggets should be closer to a -325 favorite, but DraftKings lists their odds at -250.
Over/Under
We've seen a slight move to the over on the total, and despite reaching 243, it has the potential to climb even higher.
My Pick: Over 243
Lakers vs Nuggets Odds, Lines, Picks
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 243.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 243.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Lakers vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -6.5
- Lakers vs. Nuggets over/under: 243.5 total points
- Lakers vs. Nuggets moneyline: Nuggets -250, Lakers +205
- Lakers vs. Nuggets best bet: Over 243 (-115)
My Nuggets vs. Lakers best bet is on the Over at 243 total points, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Preview
While I generally prefer taking a contrarian approach with a total this high, the potential game script makes it increasingly likely that we could be in for a high-scoring affair.
Denver is playing entirely differently from what we saw in the previous campaign when it ranked 26th in pace with 97.43 possessions per game.
The Nuggets have ratcheted things up this season, ranking fifth in tempo, averaging 101.01 possessions. Playing with this faster pace has resulted in a higher Offensive Efficiency (119.7 vs. 117.8) and an improved Net Rating from +5.5 to +5.9.
However, while it's hard to argue with the results, the Nuggets are worse defensively, falling from eighth to 17th in the league.
Therefore, this team will give the opposition opportunities to put up their share of points.
The Lakers are already a top-10 offense with a 114.1 Rating under first-year head coach JJ Redick. And since the Feb. 2 trade that sent Anthony Davis to the Mavericks in exchange for Luka Doncic, the Lakers' Offensive Efficiency is up to 115.2.
And if we switch our focus to the Nuggets during that span, we'll find a team that sits atop the league offensively with a 130.7 Rating.
Thus, it's difficult to envision where the stops will come from, given the offensive threat both teams can offer.
The market has been precise in Nuggets games this season when the total moved higher after opening at 240.5 or more points. According to our Action Labs database, the over is a perfect 2-0 in this spot.
Lakers vs Nuggets Best Bets
The arrival of Russell Westbrook in Denver might provide the best explanation for the Nuggets adopting this uptempo style. Westbrook has formed quite a partnership with Nuggets center Nikola Jokic while passing him the ball at a higher rate than any other teammate in his career.
By constantly getting the rock to Jokic, Westbrook can use his athleticism to make darting cuts straight to the basket. As a result, Westbrook is a player who should draw plenty of consideration for his player props.
The nine-time All-Star has a rebounds+assists prop at 9.5 (-111), which he has surpassed in 10 of his last 12 home games. In an earlier meeting against the Lakers, Westbrook racked up 11 assists and seven rebounds.
His points+rebounds prop of 14.5 (-115) also looks within reach, considering he's exceeded this projection in 16 of his last 19 overall games.
Although Westbrook has stayed under this number in two straight games, he should be up for this challenge against a Lakers team he once played for while enduring a disappointing and frustrating season.
In his last five games against Los Angeles, Westbrook averaged 19.2 points and rebounds with a median of 21.
Lastly, I'll also add the Denver moneyline (-255) as the third piece of my parlay. The Nuggets are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against the Lakers, and without a recognizable center following the Davis trade, look for Jokic to dominate the paint and lead Denver to victory.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Best Bet
- Over 243 (-115)
Lakers vs. Nuggets Parlay
- Russell Westbrook Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists
- Russell Westbrook Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds
- Nuggets Moneyline
Parlay Payout: +224
Nuggets vs. Lakers Betting Trends
