The Lakers opened as 6.5-point favorites in New Orleans against the Pelicans (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). More than 80% of spread tickets are on Los Angeles. This is not too surprising as LeBron & Co. have the best record in the league.
Despite the public backing the Lakers the line moved from Pelicans +6.5 to +6. What gives?
Sharp bettors are taking the points with New Orleans. Though only 18% of bets are on the Pelicans, it represents 55% of money wagered on the spread. This is an indication that bigger bets, often from professionals, are backing New Orleans.
You might be thinking that it is nice to know which side the sharps are on, but the line movement killed the value. That is a fair thought, but we’ve found using Bet Labs that it has still been profitable to bet an NBA game after the line moves if it meets the following criteria:
- Teams is receiving 50% or less of spread tickets
- More money than tickets on team
- Line has moved at least one-half point
Since we began tracking spread dollar percentages in the 2015-16 season, teams matching this system have returned a profit of $4,665 for a $100 bettor.
Professional bettors don’t always win, but being on the same side as smart money is advantageous.
Money percentages and line movement indicate that sharps are on the Pelicans tonight.
