The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves will meet in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Our NBA betting experts, Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson, will be betting opposite sides of this series, with Brandon taking Minnesota on an alternate series spread (-1.5 games, +300), while Matt likes the Lakers -1.5 games at +120.
Continue below as they make the case for both teams to win this series in our Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions, picks, and odds for the opening round of the NBA playoffs.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves First Round Series Betting Odds
- Series Winner: Lakers -190, Timberwolves +155
- Series Spread: Lakers -1.5 games (+125), Timberwolves +1.5 games (-150)
Lakers vs. Timberwolves NBA Playoffs Picks & Predictions
🧱 The Lakers Are Too Shallow
“I believe in nothing on the Lakers after those three guys. Literally nothing. The rest of the roster to me is trash.”
Brandon has no confidence in the Lakers beyond LeBron, Luka, and Reaves. The bench isn’t just underwhelming—it’s a liability.
“The depth is not there. The size is not there. The speed is not there. The switchability is not there.”
The lack of lineup versatility or defensive flexibility makes them vulnerable against the Wolves' length and structure.
📊 The Numbers Say Minnesota Is Better—On Both Ends
“The Timberwolves offense is clearly better than the Lakers offense. And by the metrics, the Timberwolves defense is way better than the Lakers defense.”
Minnesota finished the season with a top-2 defense and a more efficient halfcourt offense than Los Angeles. The Lakers were a bottom-third defensive team over the final stretch.
“They’re number two in defense for the year, and they’re number one since the break.”
The Wolves' defense tightened even further after the All-Star break. Against a slower Lakers team, that defensive pressure could smother possessions.
🏀 Trusting the Matchup More Than the Names
“I think it’s a terrible matchup for LA. I think it’s a really bad matchup.”
Brandon believes the Wolves' size, interior defense, and ability to switch defensively give them a major edge against a Lakers team that leans on LeBron in halfcourt sets.
“I don’t think the Lakers can stop them from scoring.”
Minnesota can punish mismatches with Towns, Edwards, and Conley attacking the second unit or hunting the Lakers’ non-defenders.
🧠 Fade the Public Lean on LeBron
“I think this is the best value on the board. Because I think people think this is the LeBron thing. And I get it.”
Brandon acknowledges the public narrative—LeBron gets benefit of the doubt. But that’s creating value on the Timberwolves.
“We’re getting better offense, better defense, more continuity, home court, and plus 300.”
All the tangible advantages lie with Minnesota, yet the pricing favors LA due to reputation.
🪜 Series Spread Over Moneyline
“The series spread is Minnesota +1.5 games at -130. I don’t want -130. I want +300.”
He prefers the escalator format to juice the return, believing that if the Wolves win, it won’t take seven games.
“I’m going to take the escalator. Timberwolves -1.5 +300 at Bet365.”
That’s the ticket—and he’s not hedging it with any other result.
Brandon’s Lakers vs Timberwolves Betting Card
- ✅ Timberwolves -1.5 series spread (+300)
- ⏳ No hedge, no Game 7 safety net—just a fast finish for the better team
Lakers vs. Timberwolves NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Preview
By Matt Moore
🧠 Betting the Offense, Not the Models
“My best bet is going to be Lakers minus one and a half at plus 120.”
Matt skips the moneyline and gets aggressive with the series spread, seeing a clear offensive edge.
“The Lakers offense is why I like them in the series.”
It’s not just about LeBron’s legacy or Luka Doncic—it’s about their ability to generate good shots consistently, especially late in games.
🔍 The Luka Doncic Advantage: Creating Corner Threes
“The corner threes are my big thing here… Luka breaks all that.”
Matt points out that the Wolves’ defense is elite at taking away the rim and contesting above the break—but they give up corner threes, a blind spot in their otherwise excellent scheme. Against Luka Doncic this season, that hole became a crater. Matt sees that as highly relevant to how LeBron will be able to dissect Minnesota’s defense in this series.
“If you're not forcing those turnovers, you’re giving up those corner threes. That’s where they got murdered by the Mavs. The Mavs shot the absolute cover off the ball in those matchups from that spot.”
The Timberwolves' defense depends on forcing tough shots early in the clock. But when Luka slowed it down, probed, and forced help rotations, Dallas consistently found open corner shooters. That same vulnerability could be triggered by LeBron, who commands similar gravity and dictates tempo just as effectively.
Stat context: Minnesota ranked bottom-10 in opponent corner 3-point frequency despite being top-3 in overall defensive rating. The Mavericks shot 43% on corner threes across their games against Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Lakers ranked 3rd in corner three rate post-trade deadline.
“The Lakers, guess who was top three in corner three frequency in the regular season? The Lakers.”
LeBron’s playmaking, especially when surrounded by shooters like Russell, Reaves, and Rui, mirrors much of what Luka did to collapse Minnesota’s structure. If the Wolves don’t patch that leak—or if Gobert gets pulled away from the rim—it opens the exact kinds of shots Matt thinks can decide the series.
🪄 The LeBron-at-5 Wild Card
“If they run LeBron at five, where’s Rudy gonna go?”
Matt suggests that moving LeBron to center will stretch Gobert out of the paint, disrupting Minnesota’s elite rim protection.
“That causes a lot of stress on that Wolves defense.”
Rudy can’t guard on the perimeter. If the Lakers can force those rotations, Matt thinks they can collapse Minnesota’s structure.
🔁 Fading the Timberwolves' Late-Game Control
“There are stretches where the Wolves can’t score, and the Lakers are going to be able to take advantage of that.”
Minnesota’s offense, while improved, still hits droughts. Against a team like LA, that can swing quarters—and games.
“I’m going to trust the better offense and the team that’s more versatile.”
Matt is prioritizing scoring versatility over defensive rankings. The Lakers can play big or small, with multiple ball-handlers and mismatches.
🎯 Straightforward Bet with Clean Math
“It’s the best value play for me on the board for this one.”
At +120, the bet gives you a strong return without needing a sweep or Game 7 stress.
“I’m going to go ahead and take the Lakers to win the series in six or fewer.”
He closes with clarity: this is a bet on experience, shot-making, and matchup pressure—not raw numbers.
Matt’s Lakers vs. Timberwolves Betting Card
- ✅ Lakers -1.5 series spread (+120)
- 💡 Leaning on shot profile mismatches, playoff adjustments, and LeBron to finish it in six or fewer
