The Los Angeles Lakers (16-13) and Golden State Warriors (15-13) face off in the NBA on Christmas Night. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on ABC and ESPN.
The Warriors are 4-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread, with the over/under set at 219.5 total points. Golden State is a -175 favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Lakers vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Christmas Night.
Lakers vs. Warriors Predictions, Picks
Spread
Although both teams have been struggling with their form lately, my power ratings make the Warriors closer to a six-point home favorite, which suggests they have value at the current number of -4.
Over/Under
Based on my model projection, I slightly lean to the under at 222.5. However, since this is a marquee Christmas Day matchup, odds for this game were available in the summer, with an opening number of around 235.
As a result, at 219.5, you're getting the worst of the number right now.
My Pick: Warriors -4 (-110)
Lakers vs. Warriors Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 219.5 -110 / -110 | +145 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 219.5 -110 / -110 | -175 |
- Lakers vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -4
- Lakers vs. Warriors over/under: 219.5 total points
- Lakers vs. Warriors moneyline: Lakers +145, Warriors -175
- Lakers vs. Warriors best bet:Warriors -4 (-112)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Christmas Preview
The Lakers and Warriors have had mixed results this season. While Los Angeles (16-13) is ahead of Golden State (15-13) by a half-game in the conference standings, both teams find themselves in the seventh and eighth seeds for a play-in spot.
I will acknowledge that the Lakers have looked better recently, winning three of their last four games. However, two of those victories came against a Sacramento team that sits 12th in the West with a 13-17 mark.
According to TeamRankings, the Lakers have played the 15th toughest schedule thus far compared to the Warriors, who rank first in the category.
Moreover, if we look at the TeamRankings luck factor for both teams, Los Angeles has the second-highest, at +2.7. Those numbers suggest that the Lakers should be closer to a 13-win team.
Interestingly, Los Angeles is one of only two teams (San Antonio) above .500 with a negative Net Rating (-3.0). Those numbers seem unsustainable, making the Lakers a likely candidate for regression at some point in the season.
During the offseason, there was a heavy focus on the offensive principles that JJ Redick, the team's first-year head coach, would bring to Los Angeles.
However, the Lakers have somehow gotten worse, with their offensive efficiency dropping from 115.4 to 111.5.
Another concern for Los Angeles is its inability to defend the paint, as it ranks 28th in that category. It's also 27th in rebounding despite having Anthony Davis, one of the best frontcourt players in the league.
Collectively, the Lakers aren't doing enough to support Davis on the interior, who leads the team with 11.8 rebounds. Their efficiency numbers suggest they're a bottom-half team, while the Warriors are in the top half in both categories and, more specifically, the top-10 defensively.
The difference in this game could come down to the Warriors' superiority on the glass (ranked third in rebounds) to create extra second-chance scoring opportunities.
Lakers vs. Warriors Best Bets, Predictions
With my top play being for the Warriors to cover the spread, I prefer to opt for their moneyline to win when building my same game parlay. Since part of my breakdown focused on the Lakers' rebounding woes, I've identified a player prop that should correlate nicely with a Warriors victory.
Golden State's Andrew Wiggins has points + rebounds + assists of 22.5, and I like his chances to go over that projection against the Lakers.
Wiggins has exceeded that number in five of his last six games when facing an opponent ranked bottom-10 in rebounds allowed. In those games, he averaged 26.17 combined points + rebounds + assists, while registering a median of 27.
Moreover, against the Lakers, he's exceeded the number in three of his last four meetings, with an average of 24.75 and a median of 24.
There are some signs the Warriors' all-time leading scorer, Stephen Curry, is starting to slow down in his 16th season. He recently had some of the worst performances in his career, scoring just 12 points on 2-of-20 shooting (2-of-15 from the perimeter) in two losses against the Grizzlies and Pacers.
At 29, Wiggins is seven years younger than Curry, and should still be in his prime. It's worth noting that he averaged 20+ points on three occasions when he played for the Timberwolves.
Perhaps he could be doing even more for the Warriors with Curry in the latter stage of his career. Given his potential, I think we'll see a more spirited effort from Wiggins against a Lakers defense that should play right into his hands.
Best Bet: Warriors -4
Lakers vs. Warriors Parlay Picks
- Warriors Moneyline
- Andrew Wiggins Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +165
Warriors vs. Lakers Betting Trends
