Moore: LeBron and the Lakers Don’t Have Enough Firepower to Cover +9

Betting odds: Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors

• Spread: Warriors -9
• Over/Under: 234.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN

This game is the very definition of "marquee."

Put this one up in the big spotlights. Christmas Day's NBA showcase features one game that stands above all others. Utah-Portland, Sixers-Celtics and Rockets-Thunder all have greater playoff implications. Knicks-Bucks may feature the MVP. But all eyes on Tuesday will be pointed at Warriors-Lakers.

With the Warriors favored by nine points vs. the Lakers Tuesday, let's take a look at the matchup to see what it tells us on one of the NBA's biggest betting days of the year.

I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE MATH PROBLEM

The Lakers were riddled with questions about their shooting in the preseason.

That trend has held true to form, as the Lakers are 30th in spot-up offense per possession (via Synergy Sports) and 19th in 3-pointers generated per 100 possessions. The Warriors, meanwhile, are the third-best team at defending spot-ups and generate the sixth-most 3-pointers per 100 possessions.

Additionally, the Lakers are 19th in spot-up defense, and Golden State is third in spot-up offense.

In other words, there's a lot of indication that Golden State will generate a ton of open looks, which they knock down very reliably. In addition to all the above data, here's one more…

The Lakers are dead last in points off catch-and-shoot jumpers logged by Synergy Sports as "unguarded." The most efficient, most coveted shot in basketball… and they struggle with it.

These little margins really hurt you vs. the Warriors. That's one reason why the Cavaliers geared their team as offensive and shooter-centric as they could. You have to be able to keep pace.

The Warriors are 11-5 against-the-spread when they make at least one more 3-pointer than their opponent and 11-2 ATS when they make greater than three 3-pointers more than the opponent. If you don't bring the ammo, you have no shot.

The Lakers' leading 3-point shooter among rotation players is Lance Stephenson. Yeah. That's where we're at. No. 2 is Josh Hart, who is great, but third is LeBron James. After that the only player shooting better than 35% from deep is Rajon Rondo.

Meanwhile, the Lakers' overall 3-point defense is pretty stout, but they're vulnerable in one key area. And it's a big one.

OFF-SILVER-SCREEN

The Lakers' big issue is defending off-screens. They have young wings who don't have the muscle or precision to careen through and around bodies to contest, and their bigs are built to challenge at the rim, not contest. The Warriors can exacerbate this by using Draymond Green at center.

Take a look at what happens with Green up top vs. the Clippers. Marcin Gortat stays up to try and contest the pass, but the result is pulling the Clippers' rim protection away and opening up the lane.

The question here becomes what the Lakers do if they're defending this with one of their traditional big men in Tyson Chandler, who is questionable but currently projected to start with JaVale McGee out.

How far off do you play Green, whose shot has completely abandoned him over the years — he's shooting 22% from 3 this season — and who you would accept as the primary scoring threat a million times over compared to the other Warrior weapons? Do you sink all the way down to help contest on action like that?

Can a defender do that? Telling guys to just leave their opponent open is such a hard thing based on instinct and experience, but it's also the right move in situations like that.

Josh Hart and Kyle Kuzma have the biggest issues in these situations, as often the communication just isn't there:

Now, you replace that action with Klay Thompson, the Warriors' No. 1 scorer off screens and the second-deadliest shooter on the planet even in an off year, and you have a mountain of trouble.

SO WHAT'S THE GOOD NEWS?

If you're looking for a way to talk yourself into Lakers +9, I don't have a lot for you. Looking at most of the statistics, it's a nightmare.

The Lakers struggle in transition defense? Well, the Warriors are prolific there. The Lakers get most of their points out of transition? Golden State is third in transition defense per possession.

It's rough.

Here's the upshot, beyond "It's LeBron on Christmas and you never know what kind of performance you'll get from the Warriors, who are 14-19 ATS this season" or "LeBron is 2-1 vs. the Warriors ATS on Christmas."

The one weak point is that Golden State struggles to defend the pick-and-roll. Golden State tends to freelance more aggressively on the ball-handler, like they did here on J.J. Barea, allowing Maxi Kleber to get to the rim:

The Warriors' bigs just aren't as good this year, and that opens things up, although it will be less of an issue today with McGee out. Kyle Kuzma might be able to get things going with the pick-and-pop.

THE ANGLE

The overall look leans heavily toward Golden State (-9), which goes strongly against my gut reaction to the line when I saw it.

LeBron seems to have this mythos about him, and, like I said, James is 2-1 ATS since he started meeting Golden State on Christmas.

But James is also 2-4 since 2010 when he joined the Heat when he's been a nine-point underdog or more. It almost never happens, but he's not great at it.

And this year, he's 3-5 ATS when the Lakers are underdogs at all. James plays best from a position of strength. He can overcome almost any odds, but this matchup is tough on top of the talent differential.

Nine is a lot of points to lay, but the Lakers are going to have a hard time keeping up. Golden State's going to create better looks and going to knock down more of them, and that simple differential gives good evidence that the Warriors can handle this.

Golden State is 18-23 ATS at home when favored by nine or more the past two seasons, but so much of that is due to inattention. LeBron always has their attention, and while I think the Lakers can hang and am interested in the first half line, Golden State has to be the play, all things considered.