The Los Angeles Lakers are at DEFCON 3. That scale, developed by the United States military, describes an alert state. A 5 is considered all is well, and a 1 means total disaster is imminent.
After the Lakers lost to the Miami Heat on Wednesday night, they fell to 11-18 outside of the In-Season Tournament and 3-9 since they beat the Pacers in Vegas to take home the Cup. They sit with a negative point differential, schedule-adjusted, at DunksAndThrees.com, with the 20th-ranked offense and 11th-ranked defense.
So now, fingers are starting to be pointed, and Darvin Ham is first up to take the blame.
Following the loss to the Heat Wednesday night, LeBron James left without speaking to reporters. There has been consistent reporting from various sources for weeks that tension was forming in the locker room in regards to Ham. That spilled out on Thursday morning with this report from Shams Charania.
"I'm told there's a growing, deepening disconnect between Darvin Ham and that Lakers locker room right now, and a lot of it is stemming from extreme rotational changes, lineup changes."@ShamsCharania on Head Coach Darvin Ham and the Lakers.
📺: https://t.co/wdT8I0ST8gpic.twitter.com/wQUUWBNy6b
— Run It Back (@RunItBackFDTV) January 4, 2024
The biggest criticism for Ham stems from his decision to move away from lineups and rotations that were instrumental in the Lakers' late season and playoff run that resulted in a conference finals sweep to the Nuggets. But it's moved beyond individual decisions and toward a larger sense that the team has "quit" on Ham.
What's baffling about the Lakers' struggles is that for the first six weeks of the season, LeBron James was playing incredible basketball. He is one of the leaders in advanced metrics like EPM and Box Plus-Minus this season and is averaging 25-7-7 while shooting 39.5% from 3, the second-best mark of his career.
Then, as James tailed off, Anthony Davis stepped up. Davis is averaging 29 points on 55-39-78 shooting with 14 rebounds per game over his last 15 games while contributing 3.9 stocks (steals plus blocks) per game.
Yet in that 15-game span, the Lakers have a plus-minus of zero in Davis' 553 minutes and, for the season, have only outscored opponents by 0.9 points per 100 possessions with Davis on the floor. And they have lost their minutes with Davis when LeBron James is on the bench this season, which is damning both for the surrounding talent and Davis' ability to lift lineups the way star players are expected.
So with things spiraling so badly and the team clearly aware that things need to change, the temperature is rising on Ham's seat. It is very typical of Lakers culture that the team simultaneously convinced themselves that an outlier stretch in March versus tanking and/or resting teams and two series versus flawed opponents in bad spots was proof of this team's ability to contend and is currently convinced that coaching, which was essential to that same conference finals run, is the problem that must be solved.
But if the Lakers do decide to make a change at head coach, who replaces Ham as head of the most popular basketball franchise in the world? Here's a brief list of candidates, based purely off speculation and not insider intel, ranked on their prospective fit and likelihood in my opinion.
5 Lakers Head Coaching Candidates to Replace Darvin Ham, Ranked
5. Mike Budenholzer
A championship coach who excels at installing principles and managing the regular season, Budenholzer won a title with the Bucks in 2021, and his teams are pretty much 50-win engines. Ham coached under Budenholzer, so guys with LeBron connections have familiarity with him. Budenholzer seems less likely to take the job from his former assistant mid-season. Veteran coaches often blanch at those situations.
4. Mark Jackson
A Klutch client currently out of work after ESPN released him, the former Warriors coach has been mentioned in rumors for years linked to various teams with Klutch ties. Jackson isn't the best tactician available, but he is excellent at securing buy-in. The players would play hard for him.
3. Dave Joerger
The former Grizzlies and Kings head coach has playoff experience and has shown success in leading development while winning games. Joerger is currently working as a consultant for the Cavaliers, meaning that his position isn't as entrenched as the other coaches on other teams on this list.
2. Phil Handy
A long-time Mike Brown assistant, Handy was an assistant with the Cavaliers during LeBron's championship run with the Cavaliers and the last three seasons of LeBron's Cavs tenure. He then joined the Lakers in 2020 and would be the current assistant on staff that James is expected to back as a replacement. The 52-year-old has no head coaching experience.
1. Doc Rivers
If I were handicapping the candidates if the Lakers make a move, I'd start with Rivers. He's available, as he is currently doing commentary for ESPN. He coached as recently as last season and has won a title. James knows how good of a coach Rivers is and has long been an admirer. Rivers is a name James trusts, with championship experience, who has coached 215 playoff games in his career. You need a big name to handle a team with this kind of star power politics under this kind of spotlight, and Rivers is comfortable doing so.
Other Noteworthy Potential Candidates
Chris Jent: Another coach with extensive LeBron experience, Jent has 16 seasons of experience as an assistant, including six with James. Jent is considered more of a shooting coach but has to be on the list given his experience relative to the rest of the assistant staff.
Jared Dudley: Currently an assistant under James' former assistant coach Jason Kidd in Dallas, Dudley is a former teammate of James. He would be a young and inexperienced choice, and it's rare for a coach to leave midseason, but Kidd's relationship to James might grease some of the wheels if it came to that. Dudley is considered an up-and-comer, and this would certainly be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Monty Williams: This seems like a longshot, for sure, but Williams is currently at the helm of a historically bad Pistons franchise. Reports suggested that Williams was reluctant to take the Pistons job before ultimately agreeing after signing a six-year, $78.5 million deal. The Lakers contract would likely not reach that, but if Williams is dissatisfied with being tied to such an ignominious team in NBA history and wants to contend again, and the Pistons want to change directions (while clearing that money off the books), perhaps an arrangement could be made.
Kenny Atkinson: Atkinson is currently an assistant with the Warriors after coaching the Nets for several years. On top of complications with him being in-season as an assistant for another team, Atkinson was ultimately ousted in Brooklyn during the Kevin Durant era. It seems unlikely that a coach Durant was at least not committed enough to convince the franchise to keep would be a choice for James, but Atkinson is one of the best coaches without a head coaching job currently.
Mike D'Antoni: A second run with the Lakers? Because it went so well the first time! D'Antoni is 72 and hasn't shown much interest in returning to a head coaching job since leaving the Rockets. He's also not a great fit with a defensive roster and D'Antoni famously clashed with James' good friend Carmelo Anthony in New York a decade ago. But any list looking for mid-season replacements with playoff experience needs to include D'Antoni.