The Orlando Magic are off to a flying start with a 16-7 mark this season. And even despite finishing 14 games under .500 in the previous campaign, there were clear signs of improvement —particularly given how Orlando has fared against some of the better teams across the league.
This season, it seems like the Magic are starting to put it all together. But what's been behind their resurgence, and is this form sustainable?
We'll try to peel back those layers and examine why bettors shouldn't be so quick to back away from the Magic this season.
Defense Leading the Way for Orlando
Orlando's net rating is a good place to begin our assessment, given that it improved by 7.5 points from the previous campaign. Per NBA.com, the Magic finished 24th (-2.3) in that category, but now they're up to fifth (+5.2) thus far this season.
What's interesting about the Magic is that their gains have come on the defensive end when most NBA teams seem to prioritize scoring the basketball. Per TeamRankings, Orlando went from 17th (110.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) in defensive efficiency last season to third (105.1 points allowed per 100 possessions).
But what stands out is how Orlando defends the perimeter, as it ranks 6th in limiting opponents to 32.3 three-point attempts per game. Orlando also ranks sixth in opponent three-point field goals (11.5 allowed per game).
If you're still not sold on the importance of defense, consider how things are going for the Rockets and Timberwolves. Houston went from ranking 29th (115.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) in defensive efficiency last season to second (115.1 points allowed per 100 possessions), and it's currently three games above .500(12-9) after managing just 22 wins.
As for the Timberwolves, their defensive efficiency improved from 110.2 to a league-leading 103 points allowed per 100 possessions, resulting in a tie for the best record in the league at 18-5.
The In-Season Strategy to Bet the Magic
I looked at where Orlando's defensive efficiency ranked among teams that reached the NBA Finals over the past six seasons and found that the Magic had the fifth-best mark.
This doesn't mean Orlando is set to play for an NBA title. However, the findings lend credence to the notion that this Magic' run does have some staying power.
I agree with the assessment made by my colleague Jim Turvey that the Magic can go over their in-season win total of 43.5 games simply by playing a .500 ball the rest of the way.
However, it might make sense to jump in after they finish a tough upcoming stretch on the road with two games in Boston, one in Milwaukee and another in Indianapolis against the Pacers.
Nestled between those road fixtures is a home game against the Miami Heat.
One way to approach the Magic is to back them on the moneyline when they're underdogs. Since last season, when facing teams with a winning percentage of .500 or higher, Orlando is 23-32 as a dog in this spot for 16.79 units.
That's an increase of 10.62 units if you blindly played them as a dog against the spread using the same criteria.
Over the past two seasons, Orlando's been a favorite just five times against teams with a record of .500 or better. As the market adjusts, that number will undoubtedly go up, leaving the underdog angle as a compelling option given the Magic's defensive improvements.
