Math Dooms Dallas’ Comeback, Celtics on Brink of NBA Title
(Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)
The Celtics nearly melted down in epic fashion, but survived a furious Dallas comeback, and at long last, Boston is on the brink of an NBA championship.
Even when the Mavs thought they had it, the numbers just didn't add up for Dallas — and they haven't throughout the Finals.
The Mavs threatened to pull away early in front of a roaring home crowd, but had already given a 13-point lead back by the end of the first quarter. Dallas took a one-point lead into the half, but it felt like the Mavs should've been up by six or eight. Dallas was playing better ball and getting better looks, but the Celtics were hanging in there the same way they've won all series — with 3-pointers.
Sam Hauser hit a trio of first-half 3s, Jayson Tatum finally found his shot and Boston hit just enough 3s to hang tough before busting through the dam in the third quarter. The Celtics hit a barrage of shots to win the quarter 35-19, and the game and series looked all but over when Boston went up by as many as 21 one minute into the final stanza.
Of course, things are never that easy for the Celtics, even on the brink of a championship.
Dallas made a 3, then Luka Doncic hit a layup. Dereck Lively got an offensive rebound and putback, then Doncic assisted on another 3. Doncic and Kyrie Irving had been electric, carrying the offense, and the Mavs inched closer and closer.
Dallas, on a 20-2 run, got all the way back to 93-90 as the crowd went wild, and then disaster struck. Doncic picked up a fifth foul, then a sixth on back-to-back possessions, fouling out with 4:12 left on the clock.
That was effectively time of death, both on the Mavs' Cinderella run and on the NBA season.
Irving and the Mavs did their best — P.J. Washington and Lively actually showed up and contributed — but it was not enough, and now Dallas must make history, or the season is over.
So how did Dallas come all the way back, just like it did in Game 2, only to fall short once again?
In a word: math.
A cursory glance at the stats makes this look like an even game.
Both teams made 38 shots. Boston made 37% of its 3s; Dallas 36%. Both teams had the same number of turnovers and fast-break points. Both teams effectively had the same number of free throws — two more for Dallas — and the Mavs won the rebounding battle.
The numbers are in lock step, right on down the stat sheet — except for one number, a really important one, the same one that's been lopsided all series.
Boston took 46 3-point attempts. Dallas took 25.
The Celtics did not play particularly well in Game 3, nor in Game 2, outside of a couple stretches. Boston isn't hitting a crazy percentage of its shots. Dallas has held Boston to 107, 105 and 106 — totals the Mavs have to feel good about. Both of Dallas' stars got going and scored 62 points combined. This is the Dallas script.
Except the script has a tiny little, hugely important math problem.
At one point late in the third quarter, with Boston's lead ballooning, the Celtics had made 16 3s while Dallas had only even taken 17. That math just isn't going to work for the Mavs, not as massive underdogs trying to do the impossible.
The differential in 3-point volume is simply drowning the Mavericks.
Boston shot effectively the same percentage on its 3s and on its 2s, but the Mavs are not getting enough 3s up, and they're not preventing Boston from doing the same.
The Celtics finished +24 on 3s, with eight extra makes, and didn't do it with superior shot making or creation. They simply shot more. Credit Joe Mazzulla and the coaching staff for creating an identity that's clearly working.
The Celtics are taking more 3s, with better shooters, against the worse 3-point defense. Dallas just can't overcome that deficit.
That math just ain't mathin'.
Oh, there are other problems.
The Mavs' bench is still useless, outside of Lively. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Maxi Kleber are basically getting cardio. Daniel Gafford still can't make a mark as the starting center. Irving remains inconsistent. And Dallas' superstar can't stop complaining to the refs or disappearing in the fourth quarter, by his decision or the refs.
The real problem, of course, is that teams win NBA championships, not individual stars, and that Boston has been the better team all series and was again Wednesday night.
No Kristaps Porzingis? No problem.
Xavier Tillman played tough defense and hit a 3. Hauser drained a trio of 3s. Derrick White blocked two more shots. Jrue Holiday scrapped. Tatum finally hit his 3s.
And like he has for much of the playoffs, Jaylen Brown closed. Brown had a huge second half when Boston needed him most, finishing with 30 points, eight rebounds and eight assists to end the game as the clear — and deserving — Finals MVP favorite.
You already know no team in NBA history has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit.
It's hard to win four games in a row and even harder against a team that just beat you three times.
That's just math.
And Dallas is failing its math test.
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