Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics begins June 6 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Keep reading for my NBA first-basket prop picks for the Mavericks vs. Celtics matchup on Thursday, June 6.
Luka Doncic first Mavericks basket (+200 FanDuel) & first basket exact 3pt (+2900 FanDuel)
Doncic has cashed Dallas’ first basket in 8-of-17 games this postseason. Although Boston possesses numerous strong defenders to throw at him, I expect them to mostly play single coverage and take away passing lanes. That would benefit a scoring-centered narrative for him.
The Celtics also gave up the second most above-the-break 3-point attempts during the regular season, as well as the sixth largest pull-up 3-point rate. That has not changed this postseason in the slightest.
He ranks second across the NBA in above-the-break attempts per game this year and leads the league in pull-up attempts from deep too. It’s a perfect shot profile fit for the Mavericks’ superstar, and the +2900 line on FanDuel is a steal. For context, the prop is +1300 on DraftKings and +1800 on BetMGM.
I would play Doncic first Mavericks basket at 0.7 units and down to +190 odds. As for Doncic first basket exact 3-point, I would throw 0.3 units on it and play the line down to +2000 odds.
Kristaps Porzingis first Celtics field goal exact 3pt (+1100 DraftKings)
Daniel Gafford is not well-suited to defend stretch-fives, and Porzingis was once again one of the best in the league this year. The Celtics big man averaged just over five triples per game and shot 37.5% on those attempts. His pick-and-pop potential will be a huge weapon against Dallas, and Boston loved to feed the action early all year.
In the sole matchup post-All Star break, Jaylen Brown missed Boston’s first shot before Porzingis knocked down a triple to cash the prop. The center finished that game with eight 3-point attempts in 29 minutes.
Will shooting rust be an issue? Perhaps, but it’s worth the risk. Porzingis is an excellent shooter and has the touch to perform like he never left. It’s worth noting that he made 39.2% of his first-quarter triples this regular season.
I recommend playing this at 0.5 units and down to +900 odds.
Jrue Holiday first field goal (+950 DraftKings)
Jrue Holiday took the first shot of the game in about 16% of his starts this regular season, which is the third best mark among the ten starters behind Brown and Irving. Dallas’ wings can slow down Brown and Jayson Tatum’s scoring, which inspires hope for Holiday.
It’s likely that the Celtics get the first shot of the game too because Porzingis has one of the best jumpers across the league. On the other hand, Gafford struggles mightily to win tip-offs.
His chances to score first are fairly low, but his +950 odds have a 9.5% implied probability. Based on the first-basket usage data and Dallas’ ability to slow down Boston’s top scorers, it’s a strong value bet to me.
I would play this at 0.5 units and down to +800 odds.
