Mavericks vs. Hawks Odds
| Mavericks Odds | +3 |
| Hawks Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 242.5 |
| Time | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Sunday brings an interesting matchup between a pair of teams forever linked by the draft night trade that brought Luka Doncic to Dallas and Trae Young to Atlanta.
There's extra intrigue this time as both teams are on the fringe of the postseason race. The Hawks look comfortably in the play-in, but are trying to stay ahead of the 9/10 game and may have a chance at the 7-seed. The Mavs are in the more desperate position and are trying to get into the play-in.
So which team has an edge in this pivotal matchup? Let's dive in to Mavericks vs Hawks.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is on the second night of a back-to-back after a Saturday night game in Miami. It's entirely possible that's all we need to know. South Beach has plenty to offer a young star on a Saturday night, so there's more than one reason these Mavs could be a bit fatigued Sunday.
The Mavs entered the weekend having lost four of five and are just 9-14 since trading for Kyrie Irving. The team's profile has barely budged. The offense bombs 3s all game with plenty of hero ball and there's little defense to be found. Dallas is only 4-9 with Irving and Doncic on the court together. That's not good enough, however you slice it.
Defensively, Dallas does one thing well — it doesn't let the opponent win on the perimeter. The Mavs allow the fewest 3s per game by selling out to stop opponents from getting shots up, but often get dominated in the paint.
Offensively, the Mavs are exactly the opposite. They rank third in 2-point percentage, but last in 2s because they are built to launch 3s. Dallas also eschews the offensive glass entirely and is ranked last in the league. On the defensive glass, Dallas rates below average.
That profile matters because it's all a pretty stark contrast to Atlanta.
There's not much to find in the individual numbers for either Doncic or Irving since the trade. Doncic has seen a very slight dip in points and rebounds, while Irving has seen a slight dip in points and assists. It's not much, and not enough to merit a real angle, especially against a porous Atlanta defense.
Too often, trade analysis plops a new addition into a team, adds in the numbers and figures that's that. That's usually lazy analysis, but with Dallas, it actually feels like that's the case. Irving's numbers are there, but little else has changed.
Atlanta Hawks
The big picture story is somewhat similar for the Hawks. Atlanta is 9-9 since firing Nate McMillan at the All-Star Break. At 38-39 for the season, it's easy to see not much has changed.
The Hawks are as .500 a team as it gets. Since late January, Atlanta is 1-1 in its past two games, 2-2 in its past four, 3-3 in its past six, and so on, all the way to 13-13. The Hawks need to win Sunday to keep that pattern alive.
Atlanta's seen a few subtle changes under Quin Snyder. The Hawks are really crashing the offensive glass, ranking second in offensive rebounding after being outside the top 10 for most of the season. The defense is starting to cut its fouls, a Snyder staple, but is also giving up even easier shots than ever.
The Hawks profile is in stark contrast to Dallas. Atlanta ranks last in 3-point attempt rate and first in 2s, effectively negating Dallas' defensive strength. Atlanta is also miserable defending 2s (the 29th-most allowed), but Dallas prefers to shoot 3s. The Mavs aren't built to attack Atlanta's weaknesses.
A couple Hawks could be good prop bet targets.
Consider a Young points under. He's cooled down considerably over the past seven games, averaging 19.4 PPG on 14.3 field goal attempts. That's way down from his season-long marks of 27.0 and 19.7. Young's career 19.8 PPG against Dallas is also his worst against any opponent.
Onyeka Okongwu is trending up and has been a beneficiary of the Hawks crashing the offensive glass. He's up from 2.5 to 4.2 ORPG over his past 10 games and is converting the easy buckets. His scoring is up from 9.2 to 14.2 PPG. He's scored double digits in nine of the past 10 games.
Look for a 12 points and seven rebounds same-game parlay at a plus number since those are correlated for him. You might also consider a double-double escalator as he already has 12 this season.
Mavericks-Hawks Pick
Despite the big picture similarities, the stylistic differences could tilt this in Atlanta's favor. The Hawks should see a sizable rebounding advantage and score more efficient 2s than usual. Meanwhile, Dallas' attack isn't built to punish Atlanta's poor interior defense. Add in the Mavs' Saturday night in Miami and this looks like a spot to back Atlanta.
A Young points under is in play, though this could also be a get-right spot against a soft defense, so don't play too aggressively. Okongwu may be the better props target, though you'll likely need to spot lines closer to tip-off. Look for a 12/7 SGP, or a points + rebounds over if you prefer, with a double-double escalator as a nice option.
Pick: Okongwu Points + Rebounds Overs, and Hawks to -3
