The Dallas Mavericks (39-43) will visit the Sacramento Kings (40-42) in the NBA Play-In Tournament tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Kings are 5.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Kings -5.5), with the over/under set at 213.5 total points. Sacramento is a -220 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is +180 to pull off the upset.
This is a "ditch game." As in, both of these teams rolled off the road and into a ditch, and now they’re fighting to get out of it just so they can be run over on the highway. But still, both teams want to make the postseason.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Kings predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, April 16.
Mavericks vs Kings Prediction, Picks
My Kings vs. Mavericks best bet is on the Over at 213.5 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Over 213.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs Kings Odds, Spread, Total
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 213.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 213.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Mavericks vs. Kings spread: Kings -5.5
- Mavericks vs. Kings over/under: 213.5 total points
- Mavericks vs. Kings moneyline: Mavericks +180, Kings -220
- Mavericks vs. Kings best bet:Over 213.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs Kings NBA Play-In Tournament Preview
These two teams are polar opposites. The Kings have an all-offensive repertoire and no real way to get stops, ranking 23rd in defense this season, schedule-adjusted.
The Mavericks, after losing Kyrie Irving to injury and, you know, trading away that one guy, have been offensively challenged and are basically without on-ball creators.
It’s weakness vs. weakness and strength vs. strength. That’s why I have this game so close. I make it a pick‘em with the Mavericks slightly favored. This is more because I think the Kings are overvalued in their market power rating than because Dallas is underrated.
The trick with the Mavericks is they’ve had so many injuries after trading one of the four best players in the NBA (that they should never have traded) that it’s difficult to get a read on them.
But here’s a stat: With Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively on the floor in just 48 minutes, the Mavericks are +12 in net rating. They have so much size with Lively, Davis, PJ Washington, and Daniel Gafford in the rotation that they’re able to cover ground while protecting the rim.
The problem, of course, is the offense. Brandon Williams has the best on-court offensive rating since The Trade with a 112.5 offensive rating, which is still miserably low. Their best guard is Spencer Dinwiddie, who has a 108 on-court offensive rating. They can’t score. Like at all.
The Kings, on the other hand, have lots of weapons: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis has notably had the advantage on Anthony Davis the last few years. But the Kings’ defense is porous and is the third worst in half-court sets in the league.
So the extremely stoppable force in the Mavs’ offense meets the incredibly movable object in the Kings defense. Usually in those situations, the offense wins out. However, Dallas’ defense, while big and talented, isn’t elite right now, in part because they haven’t been able to build any consistency or communication.
Mavericks vs Kings Betting Predictions
If this number was closer to where I project it (pick‘em), I’d have Kings moneyline as a best bet. But this is too many points. The Kings are not a possession better than the Mavericks. These two teams are in the 9-10 matchup for a reason.
In the 9-10 Play-In game, 9th seeds are 6-2 (5-2-1 ATS). The Under is 4-4.
I don’t want the spread, but I will play an outlier result. I’ll take this game to go to overtime at +1300. We hit on this play on Warriors-Clippers a few days ago, tracked in the Action Network app, and have done well finding spots. I think these two teams are equal and will play to it.
I also like the Over. The Kings defense will make it easy on a bad Mavericks' offense, and the Mavs' defense isn’t elite either. I project tonight's game well Over this number, and as stated above, 9-10 matchups don’t have the same trend towards the Under that 7-8 matchups do.
Mavericks vs Kings Best Bet
- Over 213.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs Kings Parlay Picks
- Game to Go to Overtime – Yes
- Over 213.5
Parlay Payout: +1300
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