The Dallas Mavericks (8-7) and Denver Nuggets (8-5) will meet in the group stage of the NBA Cup tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Nuggets are 3.5-point home favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Nuggets -3.5), with the over/under set at 225 total points. Denver is a -165 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Friday, November 22.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction, Pick
Spread
I like the Mavericks to cover the spread here at +3.5.
Moneyline
With Nikola Jokic's uncertainty and Luka Doncic ruled out, it's hard to determine a moneyline play.
Over/Under
I'll pass on the total.
My Pick: Mavericks +3.5
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 225 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 225 -110o / -110u | -165 |
- Mavericks vs Nuggets spread: Nuggets -3.5
- Mavericks vs Nuggets over/under: 225 points
- Mavericks vs Nuggets moneyline: Nuggets -165, Mavericks +140
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets best bet: Mavericks +3.5
Mavericks vs. Nuggets NBA Preview
The Dallas Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic (wrist) for this showdown against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. While Jokic is Questionable for personal reasons, he has not played since November 10th against these very same Dallas Mavericks. Jokic torched them for 37 points, 18 rebounds, and 15 assists, so we will see if he can close in on a similar incredible performance.
These teams are in the top 10 in Adjusted Net Rating, with elite offenses on both sides. The biggest issue for both teams is that without Luka and Jokic, they drop off precipitously in terms of their efficiency.
One of the biggest differences between these two teams is Dallas thrives from midrange while Denver relies on attacking the rim, but it has also put up strong numbers in terms of efficiency from beyond the arc, per Cleaning the Glass.
Without Luka, we should see a bit of an uptick for Kyrie Irving In 8 games over the last two seasons, he has averaged 29.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 7.3 assists. Given the current construct of the team, those numbers should be able to hold. Spencer Dinwiddie also saw an uptick in Usage without Luka in the one game this season, so he may be someone to target as well. PJ Washington went absolutely crazy against the Thunder, too, scoring 27 points and securing a whopping 17 rebounds.
One of the issues Dallas will run into is it allows its opponents the ninth-most rebounds per game. This aligns for Jokic as he should be able to dominate on the interior on both sides of the floor. I'd expect a big day on the glass for Jokic.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction
The Nuggets are playing on the front end of a back-to-back while the Mavericks prepare to head to Miami for a game on Sunday. The key here is Jokic's status. He is worth about five points to the spread and if he does not play, we would be grabbing some Westbrook props.
One player I will be targeting is Kyrie Irving's points prop. I'd grab any points prop over that is lower than 24.5.
Even though the Mavericks do not have Luka Doncic, this is a spot to back them. Denver has been awful ATS as a favorite, going 2-6-1 this season, but even without Luka, the Mavericks are coming off an impressive victory over the Thunder.
Kyrie Irving still has enough to lead them. In 8 games with Kyrie and without Luka, the Mavericks are 5-3 over the last two seasons. I'll grab the points with the road dog and would combine Kyrie's points prop and the spread in an SGP.
Best Bet: Mavericks +3.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay: Mavericks +4.5, Kyrie Irving Over 24.5 Points (+157)
