The Dallas Mavericks (19-11) and Phoenix Suns (15-14) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET from the Footprint Center in Phoenix. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Suns are 1-point home favorites over the Mavericks on the spread, with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. Phoenix is a -115 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Mavericks vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks for Friday, December 27.
Mavericks vs. Suns Prediction, Picks
Spread
This point spread feels right, with Luka Doncic set to miss the game for the Mavericks. It could come down to one possession, making the moneyline a better play in this spot.
Moneyline
We're getting a slight value with the Suns moneyline at -115. According to our Action Network moneyline converter, an NBA favorite laying two points should have odds closer to -132.
Over/Under
We've lost some value on the total since it dropped from the opening number of 229.5 to 224.5. Since my model projects a total of 226, this is an easy pass for me.
My Pick: Suns Moneyline (-115)
Mavericks vs. Suns Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 224.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 224.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
- Mavericks vs. Suns spread: Suns -1
- Mavericks vs. Suns over/under: 224.5 total points
- Mavericks vs. Suns moneyline: Mavericks -105, Suns -115
- Mavericks vs. Suns best bet: Suns ML (-115)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Preview
Phoenix got a much-needed win over the Nuggets on Christmas Day to avoid falling under .500 for the first time this season. The victory also helped snap a three-game losing streak.
Although the Suns are 15-14 on the year, we must not forget that this team started the season on an 8-1 run. Continuity has been an issue for much of the campaign, as Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal have each missed 10 games apiece.
Now, it's Devin Booker's turn to spend some time on the sidelines while recovering from a groin injury. With Booker out of the lineup, the Suns dialed up their defense to limit the Nuggets to 100 points on Wednesday night.
Just two days earlier, Denver held Phoenix to 90 points, prompting Suns head coach Mike Budenholzer to challenge his team to be more physical and increase their energy levels, particularly when they're struggling offensively.
Given the successful outcome and quick turnaround, I suspect the Suns will again take heed of his message in preparation for Friday's matchup.
As for the Mavericks, they've had quite a turnaround, winning 14 of their last 18 games after a 5-7 start. Even with Doncic out for eight games during that run, they still went 6-2 without him.
Thus, the Mavericks have somewhat outperformed expectations by winning 75% of their games without the best player on the team. However, that type of success doesn't feel sustainable without such a high-quality player, who has the fourth-highest usage rate in the league at 32.7%.
Thus, I'd expect to see some regression with the Mavericks while Doncic is out, and this is one of those games where the motivation and desperation might be enough to will the Suns to victory.
Mavericks vs. Suns Best Bets, Prediction
If you're looking for even better odds, I'd recommend targeting the Phoenix moneyline with a correlated player prop as part of a same game parlay. Booker's absence could result in a few extra touches for Suns center Jusuf Nurkic.
Nurkic averages nine points and 1.7 assists this season. But when the Suns are at home, his numbers increase slightly to 10 points and 2.1 assists.
His points + assists prop is available at 11.5, and he's exceeded that projection in nine of 13 (69%) home games this season. Moreover, if we look at his performance at home last season, he exceeded the number in 29 of 41 (71%) games.
The data certainly points to the value of playing the over on Nurkic's points + assists line when he's at home, given the current number and a conservative implied probability of 60%.
At DraftKings, a same game parlay with the Suns moneyline and Nurkic's points + assists prop would result in a 2-to-1 return on our investment.
Best Bet: Suns Moneyline (-115, DraftKings)
Suns vs. Mavericks Parlay Picks
- Suns Moneyline
- Jusuf Nurkic Over 11.5 Points + Assists
Parlay Payout: +204
Mavericks vs. Suns Betting Trends
