The Dallas Mavericks (16-8) and Oklahoma City Thunder (18-5) will meet in the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Thunder are 4-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Thunder -4), with the over/under set at 230 total points. Oklahoma City is a -185 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, December 10.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks
Spread
With my model projecting the Mavericks as 5-point underdogs, there's not enough of an edge to side with the visitors at the current number of +4.
Moneyline
This is a pass for me. Given my projection for the game at +5, I'd need moneyline odds of +169 or better to warrant a play on the Mavericks.
Over/Under
My biggest edge for this game is on the total, which has sailed over in eight of the last nine regular-season meetings between these two teams.
My Pick: Over 230
Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 230 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 230 -110o / -110u | -185 |
- Mavericks vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -4
- Mavericks vs. Thunder over/under: 230 total points
- Mavericks vs. Thunder moneyline: Mavericks +150, Thunder -185
- Mavericks vs. Thunder best bet:Over 230
Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA Tuesday
The stars will be out on Tuesday night as the Thunder host the Mavericks in the first round of the Emirates Cup knockout stage. Dallas enters this contest in tremendous form, winning seven straight games to improve to 16-8 on the year. Despite their 5-7 start, there was still a sense of more to come from this Dallas team that made a deep run to the NBA Finals last season.
We've almost gotten used to the Mavericks getting out to slow starts before kicking things into another gear in the second half of the campaign. However, things have felt slightly different this time as the team has gelled faster than anyone could have anticipated.
Dallas superstar Luka Doncic is starting to show some maturity in his seventh year and looks to be in much better conditioning than we've seen in recent years. The Mavericks also have a much better supporting cast around Doncic, so it's not entirely surprising that he's averaging five fewer points per game (28.7 vs. 33.9) this season.
Forward Naji Marshall and point guard Spencer Dinwiddie offer a nice boost to lengthening this Mavericks roster as both players combine to average 19.7 points per game. Their contributions allow Doncic to pick his spots, and this game feels like one that's crying out for a superstar performance.
OKC has its own superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder point guard finished second in the MVP voting ahead of Doncic in third place. When OKC and Dallas met in playoffs last season, Gilgeous-Alexander led all scorers with 32.2 points per game. The Canada native has been in quite the mood lately, registering at least 30 points in six of his last seven games.
What's remarkable about these players is that besides being great scorers, they're also more than willing to contribute in other areas of the game, such as rebounding and providing assists for their teammates.
This matchup should bring out the best in both players, and I suspect we'll see their entire repertoire when the two sides collide on Tuesday night.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Best Bets, Same Game Parlay
Considering that both teams rank in the top ten in tempo and offensive efficiency, it's hard to look past the over in this spot. The back-and-forth nature of the battle between Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander could also contribute to this being a high-scoring game.
This matchup feels like one that both superstars should thrive in, so pairing them together as part of a same-game parlay makes plenty of sense.
Doncic loves to play the villain role, especially when the Mavericks are on the road. Caesars Sportsbook lists his points + assists prop at 36.5, and he's gone over that projection in 13 of his last 16 games away from home. He's coming off 30 points and 13 rebounds in his previous outing and covered that number 73% of the time last season.
Given the team around him now, I think we're likely to see Doncic save his best performances for these big games, and this matchup against the Thunder certainly meets that criteria.
As for Gilgeous-Alexander, his alternate rebounds + assists prop caught my attention at 9.5. He's gone over this number in 16 of his last 19 games when facing a bottom-10 defense for assists allowed. Although he registered just four assists and two rebounds in his recent outing against the Pelicans, this is a great spot to bounce back against a Mavericks team that's allowed him to go over the projection in 10 of his last 11 meetings.
Combining both player props would provide a decent return on our same-game parlay with odds at +181.
Best Bet: Over 230 (-110)
Same Game Parlay: Luka Doncic Over 36.5 Points & Rebounds, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 9.5 Rebounds & Assists (+181)
