Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds
| Mavericks Odds | +6.5 |
| Warriors Odds | -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 215.5 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here. | |
The Dallas Mavericks have it all to do on Thursday night. Down 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals, they'll need three straight wins to complete the first comeback from 3-0 down in NBA history.
Standing in their way will be the mighty Golden State Warriors, who nearly erased a 29-point deficit at the end of a Game 4 loss.
Will Golden State pick right up where it left off? Let's break this one down and find some betting value.
Mavericks Surviving in Series With 3-Pointers
The story remains the same for the Mavericks. When they can shoot well from behind the arc, they are virtually impossible to stop. When they go cold from the field, they aren't a competitive offense and almost always get taken to the woodshed.
Dallas managed to knock down 46.5% of its looks in a big home win to stave off elimination in Game 4. A whopping 43 of the Mavericks' 82 field goal attempts came from behind the arc, so to update Joe Dellera's note on the Mavericks from his Game 4 guide, the Mavericks are still taking well over 50% of their attempts from deep in this series.
While the Warriors found ways to force the Mavericks into tough shots in Games 1 and 3, they've still managed to have two games in the series in which they shot 46% or better from deep — including one on the road. They've also shot 28.9% or worse in two games.
To translate that into scoring output, the two hot shooting nights for Dallas resulted in a 118 offensive rating or better — shockingly high numbers against one of the better defensive teams in the league. When the Mavericks opened the series in Game 1 with just 11 3s, they scored 90.6 points per 100 possessions. In Game 3's rough shooting night, that number was 109.9.
Dallas has lost the battle on the glass in every game this series due to its undersized small-ball lineups, though it's worth noting that the Mavericks were able to get their rebounding rate up to 48.4% in Game 4.
Still, their offensive-rebounding rate was a series-low 9.1%, which pretty much nullifies that number. As a team that shoots at such a high volume and one that can shoot the deep well, second chances are vital.
Injuries Are Taking a Toll on the Warriors
The Warriors really never got it going in Game 4. They came out of the gates slow, falling behind by four points after the first quarter and playing sloppy basketball in the second to trail 15 at halftime.
Golden State made just 3-of-16 looks from 3 and turned the ball over five times in the process. On the other side of the coin, Dallas was 11-for-23 from deep in the first half, which gave the Mavericks the lead for good.
Now, the shooting numbers against Golden State will likely vary from game to game. There was really no difference in the way the Warriors played defense from Game 3 to Game 4, aside from perhaps a missed rotation or two.
With that said, it's fair to wonder if the Warriors' defense was impacted by the loss of Otto Porter, Jr. The wing missed the contest with left foot soreness and is currently listed as questionable for Game 5.
With Porter on the floor during the playoffs, the Warriors are posting a 103.4 defensive rating. Without him? That number balloons to 112.4.
While those numbers are going to be slightly skewed based on the Mavericks' blowout win Tuesday and the small sample size, there is still a decided difference between the Warriors with Porter and the Warriors without Porter. He can help limit easy looks on the outside with his length and, on the other side of the ball, he's a capable shooter.
Porter's status probably isn't going to make or break this game, but should he return the Warriors would have to be considered bigger favorites.
Mavericks-Warriors Pick
The Warriors have closed every playoff series out at home this season and there is little reason to believe they won't do the same thing Thursday. Dallas was 2.8% better from deep at home during the regular season and although the playoffs have seen the Mavs pull out some great shooting nights, there are also nights like Game 1 in San Francisco where Dallas couldn't hit nearly enough triples to keep up.
Golden State's offense lacked inspiration for most of Game 4 and it was a shock to the Mavericks' system when the Warriors' bench entered the game toward the end, competed for rebounds, knocked down shots and took the ball to the rim with conviction. These are things the Warriors are known to do, but for whatever reason the shot selection from the starters wasn't the best early in the contest.
Dallas has always been faced with a tough task when asked to keep up with some of the league's most efficient offenses, considering its own brand of offense can be incredibly volatile and its defense was in the middle of the pack after the All-Star break.
The Warriors have a decided edge on the glass, they've shown they have a sustainable offensive attack and they've twice in four games been able to influence enough Mavericks shots to help lead to a cold shooting night. I'm comfortable laying the points.
Pick: Warriors -6.5 (-110)
