The Dallas Mavericks (5-5) visit the Golden State Warriors (8-2) in the NBA this Tuesday. The game will tip off at 10 p.m. from the Chase Center in San Francisco and be broadcast on TNT.
The Warriors are 2.5-point favorites over the Mavs on the spread (Warriors -2.5), with the over/under currently at 232 points. The Warriors are -137 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, while Dallas is +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's break down my Mavericks vs. Warriors predictions and my NBA picks for Tuesday, November 12.
Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks
Moneyline
Given the relatively short price with Golden State as a 2.5-point point favorite, I recommend bypassing the spread altogether to back the Warriors' moneyline at -137.
Spread
I would lean to the Warriors to cover the spread at the current price. The best line available is -2.5 at FanDuel, but you can find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total after it opened at 230.5 and was bet up as high as 232.5 in the market. With my model projecting a total of 231.5, there's not enough of an edge to recommend a play in either direction.
Pick: Warriors ML (-137, BetRivers)
Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 232 -110 / -110 | +115 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 232 -110 / -110 | -137 |
- Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds: Warriors -2.5
- Mavericks vs. Warriors Over/Under: 232 points
- Mavericks vs. Warriors Moneyline: Warriors -137, Mavericks +115
Mavericks vs. Warriors Preview
The NBA Cup gets underway across the league on Tuesday, with one matchup featuring Klay Thompson returning to the Bay Area with the Mavericks to take on the Warriors.
While Warriors head coach Steve Kerr anticipates an emotional night accompanied by a pregame video tribute to the four-time champion, five-time All-Star and former Splash Brother, Thompson might not be in much of a mood to reminisce.
"It'll be good to see people you grinded with, obviously – but to me, it's just another regular season game in November," Thompson told reporters. "That chapter is over. I'm in the midst of trying to win here (Dallas). There is no point in missing anything when we have such a great opportunity here to be great."
The Mavericks landed Thompson with a future second-round pick in a sign-and-trade deal that included six teams to set an NBA record. The Warriors received forward Kyle Anderson (Minnesota), guard Buddy Hield (Philadelphia) and two second-round picks to complete the trade.
Golden State was ultimately willing to part ways with Thompson, who was never quite the same player after suffering back-to-back debilitating injuries to his ACL and Achilles.
While Thompson scored decent numbers, averaging 17.9 points in his final year with the Warriors, the eye test suggested he might've lost a step. This season, he's averaging 13.8 points with the Mavericks, and his 3-point percentage is down from 38.7% to 35.4%.
Thompson will have to settle for fewer touches behind Mavericks superstars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. He's also in a place with a culture entirely different from what he experienced with the Warriors.
Doncic and Irving are incredibly talented players, capable of elevating their game at a moment's notice. The Mavericks are coming off an NBA Finals loss to the Celtics, and at 5-5, they've struggled to carry the momentum of that deep playoff run into the new year.
Last season, in clutch spots, where the game was within five points in the final five minutes, the Mavericks' 23-9 record was the second-best in the league. During this campaign, they're just 1-4 in clutch moments.
Sometimes, the Mavericks can be guilty of relying on their talent instead of finding a way to grind through games. While I expect those performances in the clutch to improve, I'm always cautious of this Mavericks team, which tends to wait until the second half of the season before they play at their full potential.
Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction
In a loaded Western Conference last season, the Warriors were the 10th seed despite posting a 46-36 record. The bookmakers struggled to assess the impact of Thompson's departure, as the Warriors projected win total remained relatively flat at 46.5.
However, the additions of Hield, Anderson and free agent guard De'Anthony Melton have fortified this Warriors team, giving it exceptional rotational depth.
The Warriors' bench has the league's highest offensive rating (73.3), so there's no massive drop-off in production when their starters are out of the game. As a result, Stephen Curry can play fewer minutes at 36, and he's not as burdened with putting the entire team on his back.
Golden State's players are averaging 35.4 more bench points per game than Dallas, which should play a vital role in the Warriors emerging with a victory.
Best Bet: Warriors ML (-137, BetRivers)
Mavericks vs. Warriors Starting Lineups
Mavericks Starting Lineup
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Kyrie Irving
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Naji Marshall
C: Daniel Gafford
Warriors Starting Lineup
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: De'Anthony Melton
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Trayce Jackson-Davis
Mavericks vs. Warriors Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 12 |
| Time: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | TNT |
